Election in May

[jack_lord]

Sunak had brought forward the budget statement so he is looking to give tax cuts to try and influence the mindless and then then call a General election early maybe? It would make sense at the start of May so let the fun begin. I hear the party may be looking at freezing public spending for three years to hamstring starmer in his manifesto

 

[JustJack]

For those who harker for a return to neat administration and organisation, then May would be most welcome.

For the Tories, the hope of just holding onto power for as long as possible means the election will very likely be January 2025

Unless a 7ft skeleton falls out of Starmers closet then I see no reason why the Tories would invoke the dissolution of parliament (latest December 17th)

Unsure how the US election plays into it all, potentially running them side by side in November drains the media coverage somewhat.

 

[jack_lord]

I think them bringing the budget forward with possible tax cuts is pointing towards a May election unless they hope that the tax cuts and possible base rate cuts will give the electorate a false feeling that they are responsible for rescuing UK ltd even though they bare totally responsible for the banking jitters.

 

[exiledclaseboy]

They’re definitely aiming for May as it stands but I think September or October is more likely. They definitely won’t wait until the last possible date in January next year.

 

[Pegojack]

The fact that Reform UK say they are going to stand in every constituency, thereby decimating the Tory Party vote, makes it more likely that the Tory scum will hang on as long as possible, hoping the wind will change or they can negotiate a deal with their Nazi nemesis.

 

[WxmJax]

The fact that Reform UK say they are going to stand in every constituency, thereby decimating the Tory Party vote, makes it more likely that the Tory scum will hang on as long as possible, hoping the wind will change or they can negotiate a deal with their Nazi nemesis.

Yeah, they won't (reform, that is)

Same as last time.

 

[K23]

I think them bringing the budget forward with possible tax cuts is pointing towards a May election unless they hope that the tax cuts and possible base rate cuts will give the electorate a false feeling that they are responsible for rescuing UK ltd even though they bare totally responsible for the banking jitters.

A few political commentators that I follow are suggesting that Sunak will be testing the water with his premature national insurance cuts and will be trying to gauge the country's reaction to the early budget before deciding whether or not to go for a May election as they will have to call that before the end of March. He is also hoping to have forced his Rwanda plan through parliament by then too. Autumn would be the time when many people are planning their 'eat or heat' strategy for the next 4-5 months so it is unlikely to be favourable time for the Selfservatives.

 

[jack_lord]

The local council elections are also due on May 2nd and that will provide Sunak with a different kind of headache as well as the Reform candidates have said that they will stand against Tory candidates this time.
If the base rate doesn't start dropping then even more people are going to be renewing their mortgages at much higher rates and will feel the pinch.
It is a big risk for Sunak to call a May election but it may be a bigger risk to delay it. Let's hope he is toast and his scummy tory bedwetters can go and live on their pension funds.

 

[JustJack]

The local council elections are also due on May 2nd and that will provide Sunak with a different kind of headache as well as the Reform candidates have said that they will stand against Tory candidates this time.
If the base rate doesn't start dropping then even more people are going to be renewing their mortgages at much higher rates and will feel the pinch.
It is a big risk for Sunak to call a May election but it may be a bigger risk to delay it. Let's hope he is toast and his scummy tory bedwetters can go and live on their pension funds.

Barring a cataclysmic labour PR event, there is no benefit to calling an election at any time between now and December

I honestly think he'll go with November and just hope Donald Trump is running for president again, which will cause a media jam.

It's a weird one, Labour are starting from the worst main opposition position in a century and the Tories are starting from (surely) the worst sitting governmental position, ever.

 

[jack_lord]

The Bank of England stubbornly holding the base rate at its level is actually looking like being the final nail in the coffin for the tories. In fact, three of the committee wanted to increase the base rate at the last meeting. Economists reckon it takes 5 - 6 months for the effects of a base rate reduction to filter through to the economy so no doubt the tories will wage war on that institution if they get back in to power.
The BOE have been inept so many times over the last couple of years, printing money was a bad idea and then holding rates too low when they actually needed a rise - but is it better that they are independent of a government that could drop rates to suit an election campaign only to hike them back after the vote?

 

[monmouth]

Everything is still set up for May. Or rather, their last throw of the con is. They'll want to go on a 'give away' early budget before all their tax increases hit (NI reduction brought forward to have happened before). They are scum. They only want to get in again to enrich themselves. There is not even a pretence of making peoples lives better, just division and blame minorities for all the things they've caused (including the 'small boat' crap). That little self obsessed weasel has done zero since he was PM of any substance except lie and obfuscate....badly. If they decide to go late, because the March give away doesn't move the dial, don't be surprised if we gat another unelected PM.

Labour is going to get a hell of a mess to sort out which is why Starmer is talking ten years. That's a minimum in my view. We need no more Tory shithouses for the 15 years to match the time in which they've broken absolutely everything.

 

[JustJack]

Everything is still set up for May. Or rather, their last throw of the con is. They'll want to go on a 'give away' early budget before all their tax increases hit (NI reduction brought forward to have happened before). They are scum. They only want to get in again to enrich themselves. There is not even a pretence of making peoples lives better, just division and blame minorities for all the things they've caused (including the 'small boat' crap). That little self obsessed weasel has done zero since he was PM of any substance except lie and obfuscate....badly. If they decide to go late, because the March give away doesn't move the dial, don't be surprised if we gat another unelected PM.

Labour is going to get a hell of a mess to sort out which is why Starmer is talking ten years. That's a minimum in my view. We need no more Tory shithouses for the 15 years to match the time in which they've broken absolutely everything.

I'm very confident it will be some sort of Lab/Lib coalition to begin with, the numbers and probability just cannot support the result of a Labour majority

For Labour to get a majority they need a SNP wipeout, i'm not sure if even 50% increase there would be enough, because the die hard tory vote in England will be enough to prevent them winning seats in England alone.

A Labour landslide win from this is point is improbable, statistically speaking

 

[J_B]

Solid Labour majority of around 50 is my prediction. Nothing is moving the dial for Sunak and he’s just poor at politics. Starmer isn’t inspiring but he’s better than Sunak who can’t read a room to save his life. There’ll be considerable tactical voting in the south of England that may help LDs in seats where Labour can’t win.

 

[monmouth]

Solid Labour majority of around 50 is my prediction. Nothing is moving the dial for Sunak and he’s just poor at politics. Starmer isn’t inspiring but he’s better than Sunak who can’t read a room to save his life. There’ll be considerable tactical voting in the south of England that may help LDs in seats where Labour can’t win.

I expect Reform Uk to demand some sweeteners and then pull out (the usual Frog Faced Cunt trick as he knows no one will ever elect him), so the tories will get a few seats back. My prediction if Labour don't do something stupid is a small Labour majority. Enough to get things they all agree on through but not enough to stop some significant in fighting on policy direction between the various factions. It's going to be a rough ride whatever. Still more crushing brexity shite to come if we can't negotiate some sensible deals.

The country is absolutely broken.

 

[jack_lord]

I expect Reform Uk to demand some sweeteners and then pull out (the usual Frog Faced c**t trick as he knows no one will ever elect him), so the tories will get a few seats back. My prediction if Labour don't do something stupid is a small Labour majority. Enough to get things they all agree on through but not enough to stop some significant in fighting on policy direction between the various factions. It's going to be a rough ride whatever. Still more crushing brexity shite to come if we can't negotiate some sensible deals.

The country is absolutely broken.

While Reform have said they fully intend on fielding candidates then they may do as you say. If that happens then that is where Lib/Lab tactical voting should absolutely come to the fore. There should be an improvement in the economy later this year and even more so if the BOE reduce the base rate but it is imperative that the opposition shout from the rooftops that this has nothing to do with Sunak et al. I would actually live to see some kind of Lib\Lab coalition politics but not where the seats determine that. I believe it would be better all round for a more balanced approach to running UK PLC.
F the Tories and F the BOE. F private Health care while I'm at it they are sinking the NHS not helping it.