For weeks (and months) people have been talking about the points tally required being closer to forty than thirty this season but when you look at the fixtures that the current bottom three have remaining then it is difficult to see them picking up any more than a handful of points.

Then when you factor in the fact that we still have to play all three teams in the relegation zone I become doubly convinced that it is just one win needed, even more so if it is against one of those three teams that we secure the three points.

So in my head a win this Saturday will see us able to relax a little and secure that Premier League status for another season despite all the odds being heavily stacked against us at the halfway point of the season.

So let us look at the fixtures left for the bottom teams in the division

West Bromwich Albion – Current Position 20th – Current Points 20

7th April – Swansea (H)
15th April – Man Utd (A)
22nd April – Liverpool (H)
28th April – Newcastle (A)
5th May – Tottenham (H)
13th May – Crystal Palace (A)

When you are in the position that West Brom are in then the set of fixtures above don’t become much harder. in fact you would argue that the game this weekend against us is probably – on paper – the easiest of the fixtures that they have remaining.

The sacking of Alan Pardew will make no difference to their end position and given that they probably have to win at least five of these six games then they are as good as down already – it is just a case of when that relegation will be mathematically confirmed.

I’ll be generous and give them a win against us together with two more points elsewhere (although even as I write I can’t see where those points will come from) and a final tally of 25.

Stoke City – Current Position 19th – Current Points 27

7th April – Tottenham (H)
16th April – West Ham (A)
22nd April – Burnley (H)
28th April – Liverpool (A)
5th April – Crystal Palace (H)
13th May – Swansea (A)

Definitely an easier run in than that faced by West Brom but not that much easier. On paper probably Crystal Palace at home looks the most winnable and maybe a point against Burnley and us could be in there so another team just picking up a maximum of five points and a final tally of 32.

Southampton – Current Position 18th – Current Points 28

8th April – Arsenal (A)
14th April – Chelsea (H)
19th April – Leicester (A)
28th April – Bournemouth (H)
5th May – Everton (A)
13th May – Man City (H)
TBC – Swansea (A)

I wonder if you asked Southampton fans today whether they would take relegation if it meant an FA Cup Final appearance what the reaction would be. I am sure that most believe it is a distraction that they could do without at this point in time.

They play three times in the league between now and that semi final and it is difficult to see them picking up a single point in that time. Of the four games that will come afterwards then three of them you would give them a decent chance but even then it is difficult to see them picking up wins at both Everton and at the Liberty. Despite having one point more the most I can see them picking up is five points as well for a final tally of 33.

Now ironically that gives us just three points needed to be safe (if you ignore goal difference) and two of them have come against teams already mentioned. Given that we have to face both Stoke and Southampton at home you would expect – even with the predictions above – us to be looking to win one of those from our fixtures which read as follows.

7th April – West Brom (A)
14th April – Everton (H)
22nd April – Man City (A)
28th April – Chelsea (H)
5th May – Bournemouth (A)
13th May – Stoke (H)
TBC – Southampton (H)

What I do believe is that from these games we will win at least two somewhere along the line (against my generosity for the current three teams at the bottom) as there is very little for the sides to play for (outside of those three) at this end of the season. I believe firmly that Chelsea will come to Swansea with a weakened side, Everton will come here in some state of disarray and that is before we factor in the Bournemouth game as well (although I don’t expect to get anything there)

Man City will be Champions by the time we face them although the 100 point barrier will remain an attraction but how hard they push will depend on their Champions League status I think.

So whatever way I look at the fixtures and then factor in the dismal form of the bottom three I firmly believe that just one more win will be enough and I certainly see a stage come 13th May where the three teams currently in the bottom three are facing Championship football next season and have been cut adrift by some distance.

And that is why I believe the Jacks are staying up…

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