Planet Swans ArchivesI am a firm believer that the league table at the end of the season never lies. If you finish first it is because you deserved to and the same principle for last – and everywhere in between. I will always tell you that the championship season wasn’t pretty to watch, it wasn’t interesting and at times it was far less than enjoyable but we deserved to win that championship because we were the best side in the division. We conceded less goals than anyone and most games we notched a goal – a winning formula – just ask George Graham’s Arsenal.
However, can a league table lie in the middle of the season? You would think that it won’t be too far off but yes it can give false hope or false fears at the halfway stage quite comfortably. Take last Saturday’s game for instance – Swansea (6th) v Southend (23rd) A sure banker home win if you wanted one but the away side won and with a man disadvantage (and of course that ended with a 3 man disadvantage) And they deserved to win the game and looked anything like a side that was fighting relegation. And if you believe their fans they haven’t for weeks. On the other hand we didn’t look like a side that was likely to challenge for promotion. An independent observer could easily have believed that the two sides were in fact in opposite positions. So is the league table lying?
I can’t comment for Southend as I have only seen the one performance from them but I would say on that one performance that yes it is. I wouldn’t say that they were a promotion side but they are certainly not relegation material based on what I saw.
And onto us. Are we promotion, relegation or mid table material. We are certainly not relegation material. That was what we were last season and we are an improvement on that and we will gain the necessary points to avoid being anywhere near that place. So it will be promotion candidates or mid table then?
Stat-mail shows us predicted to finish in 10th place at the end of the season with 67 points. At present we have just over half that number (35) with 21 games played. 25 games to get 32 points is their prediction at the moment. Seems a low total but not far off the mark based on recent form?
We have a problem at the Vetch with injuries – that much we all know – but is the squad strong itself to cope with a promotion challenge? The first choice eleven certainly is but how many times do you think we will see those eleven players on the pitch at the same time between now and the end of the season. We also have some outside that first choice who can fill in and do the job here and there but too many of them at one stage and we look nothing better than a mid table side.
We have the rumoured bust ups between Flynn and Thomas – denied by both parties – and we have people that become scapegoats for the crowd. Mickey Howard, Kieron Durkan and Jonathan Coates will never be liked and at times it is easy to understand why that mentality is there. We also play a formation that seems rigid and doesn’t change. Kieron Durkan is not adding value in a 4-3-3 formation and the whole team becomes one sided. We have no balance on the left hand side and Durkan hugs the touchline like a winger should but then we have too many in the centre of midfield and no outlet on the other side making it easier for the opposing defence to stifle the creation. We miss the pace of Brad Maylett desperately to run at defenders – Durkan has proved he can cross a ball but rarely will he take someone on and generally he needs space to get the cross in and defenders seem to know that.
Robinson, Britton and Johnrose cannot play in the centre of midfield together. There is no space. If we balanced with one of them on the left then you could have the space for Britton and Johnrose (Martinez) in the centre of midfield for some creation. As it stands Mickey Howard is running upfield more and more often to compensate for this lack of width on that side and then being caught out of position when an attack breaks down and the counter attack follows. This isn’t his fault – you would imagine it is what he has been instructed to do otherwise he would get a roasting for doing it? We know we miss the influence of Martinez but we cannot make up for that loss at the moment and we are suffering for it.
Defence wise I remain to be convinced what the best back four we can have is. Izzy looked a certain starter but Tate I am still not convinced on. At times he really does look the part but at other times (and not just Saturday) he looks lazy and at times I think he tries to be too clever. Duffy is an excellent prospect but I think we forget he is just 18 and I wonder if a rest will do him good. At left back I believe Howard can do a job but, and I have said it many times, he needs a good left side player in front of him. If he isn’t to get that then we need to think again – as a suggestion what about Izzy and bring Kris O’Leary or Stuart Jones into replace Tate?
Up front – Trundle. I can’t criticise the man. He makes chances for himself and is a general nuisance. Yeah he tries to take one man too many on at times but we have to live with that – no footballer always makes the right choice. His best partner? At the start of the season it was Nugent without a doubt. But now the pretty football has gone we resort to long balls upfield looking for our target man. And quite often now he isn’t winning the ball. Thommo came in on Saturday and scored twice. He deserves a run now and how do we know that Trundle and Thommo doesn’t work until we try them together. Two games at the start of the season is not enough to judge and with two 15-20 goal strikers in the side we should start scoring more freely again.
I don’t think we are far off a promotion chasing side but alas at the moment I think we are a mid table team. We may threaten the play offs during the season but we will sit between 8th and 12th on current performance levels. A marked improvement on last season but we have the chance to progress as outside the top 3 or 4 clubs this is an open division.
We have four tough games coming up – Doncaster, Torquay, Yeovil and Oxford are the next league opponents – and at the end of these four games then I think we will have a better idea of whether the league table lies or not. Let’s hope it doesn’t?
