Planet Swans Archivest may be a bold headline that heads this story up or it may be a piece of future reading but I really cannot see at the moment any reason why we are not going up despite the team, in my opinion, not firing on anywhere near all cylinders at this moment in time.
Yesterday’s game against a Chester side saw us notch three goals, it could have been more, without actually getting anywhere near top gear. Second half was a decent performance but nowhere near what we are capable of and yet we brushed past the opposition with some ease.
Much has been quoted about 82 points being enough to secure promotion but to be fair this season I can see it being significantly less than that – maybe even around the 75 point barrier although I suspect it will settle at around 78 or 79.. The sides currently chasing the top three only have a points capability in the 90s and with no-one really putting together a string of form that lasts for anything more than a few matches it is hard to see them coming near that figure.
We have 17 games left to play and 8 wins I think will be enough to take us up. We could do it the easy way by winning every game at the Vetch but looking at the away fixtures you would have to fancy us to pick up several points on the road between now and the first Saturday in May to add to that.
We have two strikers who in the last 8 games have notched 13 of their 28 goals this season and look like they are capable of scoring on every attack. A few correct balls here and there yesterday would have seen the score increase from 3 and add to that we look as if Andy Robinson is back among the goals and the chances which can only be a good thing for us as we move forward.
Everyone points to Friday as a massive game which is true and whilst winning would be lovely I would happily take a point if I have to. Another game would pass without the gap closing. A win is important but certainly not essential.
The crucial period for me is the 4 weeks between February 26 and March 26 – a period that sees us against Scunthorpe, Northampton and Macclesfield in the Top 7 and Rochdale just outside it. 3 of those games are at home so you have to fancy us for something from those particular fixtures. We have four games between now and then so could be looking at well into the 60s in terms of points by that stage.
Almost certainly we have the team that can take us up. I don’t believe that the division is hugely poor this season but what it is devoid of is any more than a few teams who can string results together on a regular basis. We are where we are at this stage because we deserve to be and 17 wins from 29 matches backs that theory up. Here and there we have had some decisions go our way but you don’t win that ratio of games purely on luck.
We know we have habits of defending too deep at times and we know that we still would like to see new faces in certain positions but for me if we can go up without those new faces then we have a much better chance of attracting a better quality in the summer.
Things are most definitely looking good at this moment in time and I remain extremely confident that my three bets at various stages on promotion will come good and that next season we will be witnessing League One football at White Rock.
Bring on Southend – can’t wait!
