How Big A Step

The four sides that participated in the League One play-offs this week -Sheff Wed, Brentford, Tranmere and Hartlepool were, on the face of it good sides but just how good were they. I saw one League One game ‘in the flesh’ this season – Swindon v Hull and have to say that I didn’t think the standard there was that much higher than what we were used to and Hull were promoted.

There was plenty of passion – most definitely in the Tranmere v Hartlepool game – but was the skill factor a major step up from League One and where can we expect to pitch our target for next season? How have promoted teams fared in the past when making the step up and would it be unrealistic to expect us to be hovering around the play off zone or even higher?

Swansea City is in a great position at the moment. A new stadium, a big increase in Season Ticket holders and a general feel good factor mean that the club should be easier for Kenny to sell to prospective players. A transfer budget believed to be several hundred thousand pounds and one of the biggest wage budgets in the division all make for promising thoughts. We haven’t yet seen Kenny’s transfer dealings yet during the summer which will give us a better idea of our chances but surely we shouldn’t be expecting to struggle against relegation next season.

Over the course of the previous five seasons, 20 different sides have been promoted from League Two/Division Three. Of those 20, only five will definitely ply their trade in League Two with Northampton potentially making that six if they fail in their play off bid to be promoted. Of the remaining 14 clubs, 5 will next season play Championship football, while the other 9 will be our opponents in League One.

Of those 20 clubs, only 5 have been relegated straight back down a division – admittedly we are one of those – but a further 3 – Rotherham, Brighton and Hull have gone on to automatically secure a second successive promotion. A further two sides – Hartlepool and Cardiff both secured a play off spot the season after promotion but both were knocked out in the semi finals of that part. More encouragingly, for the Swans 11 of the 20 sides achieved at least a top half finish in their first season in the higher league. The average finishing position of the 20 sides being promoted was 12th/13th.

Looking at the sides who came straight back down as well as us – Torquay, Rushden, Mansfield and Cheltenham it can be argued will always struggle at that level because of their crowd size severely restricting their abilities to compete immediately. Torquay and Cheltenham also were relegated in the last of the relegation spots.

Of course, these are only indications but it does seem to indicate that the jump from League Two to One is not that big and that there is every indication that we can expect a half decent season next year at worse.

If you want a bad omen though, three of the five sides promoted in 3rd place came straight back down but the less said about that the better!!

THE ANALYSIS