Phil SumblerAs the Swans prepare to welcome Bristol City to the Swansea.com stadium on Sunday, we go into the game in 17th place in the table, two points behind our visitors but within seven points of the top half of the table.
And whilst a position seventh from the bottom of the league is not necessarily one that you can take comfort from we should be assured that this is by no means a relegation scrap as the bottom three places look almost certain to be contested by just four teams given they are ten points adrift from the bottom of the league. Of course some would argue that the nature of that bottom four is helped by a six point deduction for Reading and a twenty-one point deduction from Derby but the facts are that three of those four teams are almost certain to be relegated.
We always knew this would be a season of transition for the Swans. Two successive play off campaigns were a great achievement under Steve Cooper but the moment Brentford took the spoils at Wembley this was never going to be anything other than a season when we regrouped ourselves.
We have talked before about the number of changes we had from that day in Wembley and that in itself tells the story of how much we had to stop, focus and start again this season. That task was not helped by the fact that the manager last season knew he didn’t want to be part of that – again, not a criticism just a statement of fact – and the way that panned out over the course of last summer has been well documented so no point in covering that again.
A new manager coming in pretty much on the eve of the season is not helpful and to that part we know that the new manager has only had one full transfer window and a few weeks to do his work. And that was not helped by the time he had arrived we had already spent big on Joel Piroe meaning that departures had to fund arrivals. And with a new manager comes new ideas with another much forgotten one of those being the retention of Matt Grimes. Had Russell Martin not been here then I have little doubt neither would our captain. He was set for moves away, clubs wanted him, the Swans were happy to sell but the manager wanted to build his midfield around him and Grimes stayed. And that meant a smaller transfer budget for the rest of the season.
With the new manager as well came a different philosophy. A return to the Swansea way was how it was heralded which meant that the season of a rebuild also became a season of transition. A season where mistakes would be made, where matches would be lost and a season where we would find out about whether players could fit into that philosophy.
Where will the Swans finish this season?
- Play Offs (2%, 1 Votes)
- 7th-12th (17%, 10 Votes)
- 13th-17th (67%, 39 Votes)
- 18th-24th (14%, 8 Votes)
Total Voters: 58
Loading ...It became clear that some could fit, some couldn’t and some probably are but are either still learning or will not be able to take it to the levels that we, or more importantly the manager, potentially want. Half of the side on Tuesday night were Russell Martin’s players with further additions on the bench but the budgetary restraints at the club mean he wants – and needs – more and that some of his players may not be here next season because of their loan deals.
The manager knows there is more work to be done – “This team is going to look very different physically next season. The physical profile of our players – the ones we currently have, whoever we bring in – is going to be very different,” he said after the humiliating defeat at Stoke on Tuesday night.
So when we factor in all of that together we ask the question as to what good looks like. Partly in terms of league position come the end of the season in May and partly in terms of the way the team appears to be progressing. There have been signs of that progression this season and we can all see what Martin is trying to achieve but there is criticism of the style, the play and the way that we compete in the games. And of course the results. And that criticism is justified at times, nobody wants to see us play at Stoke and not even come close to competing with them.
We cast our mind back to October when results were good, wins were plentiful and there was a real play off dream amongst the supporters again. The likes of Peterborough, Cardiff and West Brom were all beaten in SA1 and you sensed that good times were around the corner. October was replaced by a dismal run of form that saw us take four points from twenty-one between Halloween and Christmas before a Covid related break saw us go five weeks without a league fixture. Since then it has been eight points from seven games – not a disaster but that means the last fourteen league games have yielded just eleven points. That is simply not good enough even in a season of transition. Or more simply put over the course of a season that is a one way ticket out of the Championship in most seasons. And not in the right direction.
So right now our season of transition is not yielding what we want it to. Or even what we need it to. There are some high points recently, here I particularly point to the second half at Huddersfield but we cannot cling to strong 45 minute performances here and there we need that to become the norm and we are not there yet. What that Huddersfield half did show though is that we are capable of that kind of performance and that has to be our benchmark. Almost every Swansea fan would accept that kind of performance during games even if it meant we ended this season still in the bottom half. It would give a glimmer of hope that with a full summer window and a pre-season ahead of us optimism could be high ahead of next term.
There are seventeen games left this season and those are the ones that we should be focusing on. We should be setting ourselves a points target within those games which will increase confidence everywhere around SA1. Seventeen games, twenty-five points as an example would be a season’s run rate of 67 points – not quite play off form but a massive step in the right direction. Even twenty-one points would equate to a 56/57 point season which is comfortable mid table form and allow us to build on that over the summer. So for me we need to be aiming for that 21-25 points (or more) bracket over the remainder of the season – something we are more than capable of achieving with the squad that we have and both of them a step up from our last fourteen games.
On top of that, as important as points are we have to look at performances. Russell Martin will want marked improvements on several performances of late and whilst he points to other games where we have wasted chances these become more magnified when we create fewer and fewer chances. The manager talks about us being brave with the ball – it is now time for us to be as brave in the final third of the field as we can be in our defensive third.
Finally we need to be clear that this season is not a disaster. There have been some real low points in it but similarly there have been some highs (not as many as we would like) The reality is we are probably entrenched in a group of teams between around 11th and 20th and our aim is surely to finish as high in that group as we possibly can and if we can do that then confidence could well be high ahead of what will be a big summer for both Russell Martin and the Swans.
That probably sets out the hopes of next season. Some will point to a play off team turning into someone happy with a mid table finish but unfortunately that was the reality for us this season and anything else was to be a bonus. We’re not there yet and more time is needed and the real gauge of what Russell Martin can do with a Swansea City side and his philosophy will become more evident as next season unfolds.
Time will tell and of course thirteen wins from seventeen will see us in the play offs…had to end by raising a smile!
Thank you for a well – balanced appraisal, Phil. You have shown the negatives and the positives and have presented them in a coherent form that is ideal for debate.
I have noticed, recently, that any positive comments in defence of Russel Martin’s long-term plan/project is more often met with derision, and more worrying, abuse. I have noticed, however, that the abusers never offer a cogent argument, they simply pour abuse onto those that are looking for positives.
My first and obvious point is that the project is still in the very early stages and I expected a poor league position – I hoped for better but was prepared for reality. If the league position is similar this time next season, then something will clearly be not right. But for now we have to accept that this will be a season of some highs with a number of lows until personnel and fitness levels reach and acceptable level.
Another point, the Swansea Way, or whatever RM wants to call it, is far more than what we see on the pitch – it includes the team and club spirit, financial sustainability, a clear and good pedagogy, an ethos, a vision and a set of time-related targets.
Roberto Martinez, a young, inexperienced, assistant coach at Chester City started a project an ethos and a pedagogy that led to Premier League football in five years. We are still only seven months into this project. I’ve mentioned Roberto’s credentials as many critics are pointing to Martin’s ‘inexperience’.
The next point – I am truly amazed that the club is just about sustainable. I am no fan of the owners, nor am I their enemy. Any business venture will aim, firstly, to make the business sustainable. When that is achieved, the aim is to build the business and make it competitive and robust. Then, at that point, the aim is to turn a profit.
Our owners are not multi-billionaire hobbyists, they are business people, like it or not. It would be utter stupidity to keep throwing money at an unsustainable business. Even the Hobbyists, like Tan at Cardiff now realised that throwing money at the club is in itself unsustainable.
I don’t know the finances of our club, but if the average weekly wage of first team squad players is £7,000 per week, then project that over the squad and we have a bill of about 170K per week. Add the salaries of the coaches, the age-grade players, the academy costs, travel costs, utilities etc, then we must be looking at a conservative figure of a quarter of a million per week – a million pounds per month, £12 million per year.
What is our income? Gate receipts, season tickets, sponsorship and instalment payments for sales. It must be touch and go.I really don’t think some fans stop to think about that and expect the owners to keep dipping their hands in their pockets. These critics need to come into the real world – a post Brexit and post pandemic struggling economy.
Could I ask that if people disagree with me, or with Phil’s balanced appraisal, then try to do it with a cogent argument, clearly setting out points and refraining from hurling abuse at those with a different opinion to yourselves.
And, have patience, the project is young. Have faith and SUPPORT your club.