P R make up

[jack_lord]

In the upcoming elections, if Plaid gets 28% Deform gets 27% Labout gets 19% and Conners get 10%, how will the 6 seats gets divided in our area?

 

[Neath_Jack]

2 x Plaid
2 x Reform
1 x Labour
1 x Green

 

[Frankie Burrows Cap]

In the upcoming elections, if Plaid gets 28% Deform gets 27% Labout gets 19% and Conners get 10%, how will the 6 seats gets divided in our area?

Use this to play around with the figures

Senedd Election Simulator

Senedd Election Simulator - Visualize Welsh election results

jaclarner.github.io

Assuming the other 16% is split between Green, Lib Dem, AN Other it comes out as:
Plaid 2
Reform 2
Labour 1
Conservative 1

UPDATE BELOW FYI

Realistically there are two ways to get a 3rd seat:
1. Get 1.5x the vote of the 2nd, 3rd & 4th placed parties AND 3x the vote of the 5th placed party.
e.g. 30% as the largest party would get a 3rd seat if the next 3 parties got less than 20% and the 5th placed party got less than 10%

2. Get 1.5x the vote of the 3rd placed party AND 3x the vote of the 4th placed party.
e.g. 30% as the largest party would get a 3rd seat if the 3rd placed party got under 20% AND the 4th placed party got under 10%

If a party got 50% of the vote and NO other party got over 25% there’s a slim chance you could pick up a 4th seat - however, I’d imagine this is very unlikely in this election.

 

[jack_lord]

Use this to play around with the figures

Senedd Election Simulator

Senedd Election Simulator - Visualize Welsh election results

jaclarner.github.io

Assuming the other 16% is split between Green, Lib Dem, AN Other it comes out as:
Plaid 2
Reform 2
Labour 1
Conservative 1

UPDATE BELOW FYI

Realistically there are two ways to get a 3rd seat:
1. Get 1.5x the vote of the 2nd, 3rd & 4th placed parties AND 3x the vote of the 5th placed party.
e.g. 30% as the largest party would get a 3rd seat if the next 3 parties got less than 20% and the 5th placed party got less than 10%

2. Get 1.5x the vote of the 3rd placed party AND 3x the vote of the 4th placed party.
e.g. 30% as the largest party would get a 3rd seat if the 3rd placed party got under 20% AND the 4th placed party got under 10%

If a party got 50% of the vote and NO other party got over 25% there’s a slim chance you could pick up a 4th seat - however, I’d imagine this is very unlikely in this election.

It will be a bit bizarre that Labour could get almost 10 percent less than Plaid and Deform and get one less seat (which is probably fair) but the Cons get 10% less than Labour and get the same one seat in our area. Chaos at the senedd with the Cons voting with one party and Labour voting with Plaid. Seems like deadlock for the next few years.

 

[Niigata Jack]

It will be a bit bizarre that Labour could get almost 10 percent less than Plaid and Deform and get one less seat (which is probably fair) but the Cons get 10% less than Labour and get the same one seat in our area. Chaos at the senedd with the Cons voting with one party and Labour voting with Plaid. Seems like deadlock for the next few years.

Whatever happens, its very likely that it will be just a different day with the same shit as per!

 

[Frankie Burrows Cap]

It will be a bit bizarre that Labour could get almost 10 percent less than Plaid and Deform and get one less seat (which is probably fair) but the Cons get 10% less than Labour and get the same one seat in our area. Chaos at the senedd with the Cons voting with one party and Labour voting with Plaid. Seems like deadlock for the next few years.

Makes more sense than FPTP to me, where you can regularly get 60%+ of the politicians with less than 40% of the vote.

At least with this system you’ll end up with a percentage of politicians that roughly represents the percentage of the public that voted for them. Seems to work ok in most grown up countries in Europe.

 

[exiledclaseboy]

Makes more sense than FPTP to me, where you can get regularly get 60%+ of the politicians with less than 40% of the vote.

At least with this system you’ll end up with a percentage of politicians that roughly represents the percentage of the public that voted for them. Seems to work ok in most grown up countries in Europe.

Essentially if a party gets 40% of the vote nationwide they’ll get more or less the same percentage of seats in the Senedd. There’s literally nothing to argue with there. FPTP is an abomination.

 

[jack_lord]

Essentially if a party gets 40% of the vote nationwide they’ll get more or less the same percentage of seats in the Senedd. There’s literally nothing to argue with there. FPTP is an abomination.

FPTP is indeed crass. I am intrigued to see how some parties may get seats and others not with only a few percentage points in it if if it is based on the 16 (?) areas.

 

[Frankie Burrows Cap]

FPTP is indeed crass. I am intrigued to see how some parties may get seats and others not with only a few percentage points in it if if it is based on the 16 (?) areas.

The 5th and 6th seats may well be very tight in lots of the constituencies.

If there are 3/4 parties on 10-15% of the vote then one of them may be ‘unlucky’ and miss out on their ‘fair share’. As you say it’ll be interesting to see how it pans out next month.

 

[Niigata Jack]

If Reform get the seats required they won't be allowed to rule anyway according to Drakeford, I'm no fan of Reform and wouldn't vote for them anyway, but how is what Drakeford said democratic?

 

[Frankie Burrows Cap]

If Reform get the seats required they won't be allowed to rule anyway according to Drakeford, I'm no fan of Reform and wouldn't vote for them anyway, but how is what Drakeford said democratic?

Tbf it was poor communication from Drakeford (no surprise) and poor reporting from the Welsh media (again no surprise).

His point was correct. If Reform & the Tories don’t get over 50% of the seats (which they’re very very unlikely to do) between them, then they won’t be able to form a government as the other parties won’t work with them.

That’s pretty standard politics in democracies all round the world. If no party has a majority then it’s up to parties to work together either in coalitions or minority governments.