Cardiff City’s Projected Final Position (2024–25 Championship)
Predicted Final Standing and Points
Recent supercomputer forecasts suggest Cardiff City will finish near the bottom of the 2024–25 EFL Championship table. Opta’s data-driven model (via The Analyst) projects the Bluebirds to end up 22nd out of 24 – a relegation position – with roughly 46 points in total . In practical terms, that means Cardiff would likely be relegated to League One (third tier) for the first time in over two decades . As of mid-April, they sit 22nd on 42 points (with four matches remaining), just one point from safety . However, the prediction models indicate they will not gather enough points to escape the drop zone by season’s end (projecting ~46 points, which would still be in the bottom three) .
Relegation Probability Outlook
All signs point toward a fraught finish for Cardiff. According to Opta’s latest supercomputer simulation, Cardiff’s chance of relegation stands around 69% . In other words, more than two-thirds of simulated outcomes see the Bluebirds finishing in the bottom three. (By contrast, in late March their relegation probability was about 33–34% – the odds have worsened as results failed to improve.) Barring a dramatic turnaround, Cardiff are overwhelmingly likely to go down. Promotion is off the table (0% probability at this stage), and even the chance of climbing to safety is slim given the remaining fixtures. The teams just above them – Derby County, Hull City, Portsmouth – have inched ahead, and Cardiff must outpace at least one of them in the final games, which the supercomputer deems unlikely .
(For context, even before a ball was kicked this season, predictive models were pessimistic about Cardiff’s prospects. A pre-season Opta projection pegged City as the most likely team to be relegated (nearly a 50% chance) – higher than any other club – with a forecasted last-place finish (24th) on around 50 points . Unfortunately for Cardiff fans, the season has largely validated those grim expectations.)
Key Factors Behind the Forecast
Several factors explain why Cardiff City’s outlook is so poor, and these have been reflected in both their on-pitch performance and the supercomputer’s calculations:
- Abysmal Start to the Season: Cardiff endured a historically bad opening. They earned just 1 point from their first 6 league matches (scoring only one goal in that span) , marking the worst start in the club’s history . This dreadful opening left them “rooted to the foot of the table” early on and effectively put them in a season-long relegation fight. Being so far behind from the outset meant Cardiff have been “playing catch-up ever since, never fully able to pull away from the Championship’s relegation battle” .
- Managerial Upheaval and Mid-Season Turmoil: The club’s poor start cost manager Erol Bulut his job – he was sacked in late September 2024 after that bleak 1-point-from-6-games beginning . Interim boss Omer Riza took charge thereafter . Riza initially sparked a short-lived revival (winning 4 of his first 7 matches) but the momentum soon fizzled, with Cardiff going winless in a five-game stretch by early December . He was eventually kept on as manager for the rest of the season, but the inconsistency continued. This managerial change and instability likely hampered the team’s cohesion. The model accounts for such performance trends, and Cardiff’s tumultuous autumn set a low baseline for their projected finish.
- Injuries to Key Players: Cardiff have been hit with significant injuries, robbing them of experience and quality. Most notably, midfield talisman Aaron Ramsey and long-serving captain Joe Ralls have both been ruled out for the remainder of the campaign . Ramsey – a marquee summer signing returning to his boyhood club – provided creativity and leadership, while Ralls is a stalwart in midfield. Losing both has weakened Cardiff’s spine. Manager Omer Riza has pointed out the squad’s fitness issues, and the thin depth has been exposed. The absence of these leaders is a major factor in Cardiff’s recent slump, and the prediction models likely factor in the reduced team strength going into the final fixtures.
- Struggles in Attack and Defense: The underlying statistics for Cardiff have been poor at both ends of the pitch, which aligns with their low predicted finish. They have struggled to score goals consistently and to keep them out. For example, in a crucial 0–0 draw with fellow strugglers QPR in April, Cardiff did not register a shot on target until the 71st minute – a sign of their blunt attack. Earlier in the year, their defense was leaky (conceding 13 goals in the first six games alone) . Cardiff’s goal difference is among the worst in the league (projected around –25) and reflects a lack of firepower combined with defensive frailty . Such metrics heavily influence models like Opta’s. In fact, Opta noted that last season Cardiff dramatically overachieved relative to their expected goals: they had one of the worst xG differentials in 2023–24, suggesting their mid-table finish was deceptive . Those underlying issues have carried into this season, contributing to the forecast of a low points total and a relegation spot.
- Current Form and Momentum: Coming into the final stretch, Cardiff’s form has not inspired confidence. They have managed only a handful of wins since the new year and remain without momentum. After briefly crawling out of the bottom three, the Bluebirds slipped back into 22nd place as rivals picked up points . Their recent performances include that cagey draw at QPR and other missed opportunities against relegation rivals. With only a few games left, Cardiff needed a surge of results to overturn the odds, but instead they’ve **“lost ground” on the teams above . This poor run-in form is reflected in the surging relegation probability (from ~34% to ~69% over the last month) . Simply put, they have not shown the late-season spark required to defy the supercomputer’s projection.
Summary of the Forecast
In summary, the consensus of recent predictive analyses (Opta’s supercomputer among them) is that Cardiff City will finish 22nd in the Championship in 2024–25, with an estimated 46 points – likely condemning them to relegation . Their survival chances are slim, on the order of a 30% probability or less, while the likelihood of relegation is around 70% . This forecast is driven by Cardiff’s season-long struggles: a nightmare start, managerial changes, key injuries, and persistently poor form and stats. It appears that, barring a late miracle, the Bluebirds are poised to drop into League One. The club’s focus will thus be on somehow bucking the predictions in the final matches or, failing that, preparing to rebuild next season after what has been described as a **“painful” campaign for supporters . The projection encapsulates Cardiff’s tough year – a year in which the data and performances sadly align, pointing toward a grim finale in the Championship standings.
Sources: Recent Opta supercomputer predictions via The Analyst ; BBC Sport match reports and analysis ; season-long data and news from BBC/PA, The Guardian, and club statements . These collectively highlight Cardiff’s expected 22nd-place finish with ~46 points and around a 69% chance of relegation , given the club’s form, injuries, and other challenges. The numbers and context all underscore the same conclusion: Cardiff City are projected to end the 2024–25 season just inside the drop zone.
