Norwich have Kim Hellberg on their radar

[Smurph]

I totally agree with this.

It's a sport with way too many variables that you often cannot control or make sense of. For the most part they've (Yanks mainly) tried to lift and shift data models used in those sports and applied them to football.

I wouldn't mind betting that's why we've had so many stinking signings in the last 10 years. They're probably there scratching their head wondering why Player X didn't work out, but if you understood the sport properly instead of looking at a spreadsheet it would have been bloody obvious.

Through things like language and culture in to the mix when signing players from abroad.

 

[ARQS]

I totally agree with this.

It's a sport with way too many variables that you often cannot control or make sense of. For the most part they've (Yanks mainly) tried to lift and shift data models used in those sports and applied them to football.

I wouldn't mind betting that's why we've had so many stinking signings in the last 10 years. They're probably there scratching their head wondering why Player X didn't work out, but if you understood the sport properly instead of looking at a spreadsheet it would have been bloody obvious.

The point I always make with this though is that sometimes the stats do match up with what the eyes are telling you.

For instance, Joel Piroe's Goals v xG is very good and in fact I think quite often he has run ahead of his xG. Based on just watching him, you'd say he a) scores a lot of 'difficult' goals (i.e. Low xG) and b) takes his chances when they do come. So for me, stats and eyes tell the same story.

Similarly, Josh Tymon has one of the best expected assists in the league and based on watching him you'd agree that he generally delivers good crosses into the box. Again, you'd say that those two stats match up.

Presumably the crap signings have been because they've overly relied on the stats and not gone and watched the player properly. Or they've not factored into the equation whether a player will fit our style of play.

 

[Neath_Jack]

Why does any football fan need stats to tell you whether someone has had a good game or whether a team was unlucky not to win or were unlucky to lose. The game is fucked boys, signings made on what a computer says ffs.

Emperors new clothes on steroids.

 

[Andrew - North Hill]

Why does any football fan need stats to tell you whether someone has had a good game or whether a team was unlucky not to win or were unlucky to lose. The game is fucked boys, signings made on what a computer says ffs.

Emperors new clothes on steroids.

There's nothing wrong in using data as part of a decision making process, but you can't use it in isolation and it certainly shouldn't be the primary reason to make a signing - I suspect that's happened too many times here in recent years.

 

[ARQS]

Why does any football fan need stats to tell you whether someone has had a good game or whether a team was unlucky not to win or were unlucky to lose. The game is fucked boys, signings made on what a computer says ffs.

Emperors new clothes on steroids.

Fans don't necessarily do (although things like shots/possession/corners/action areas are stats that have been used for decades at half time as a measure of how the game has gone etc so xG etc is only really an extension of that) but clearly clubs can utilise them when assessing performances of players they've not seen play live.

For everyone's scepticism of stats, the likes of Franco and Ronald probably weren't signed by anyone connected to the club spotting them at a match. You'd think they'd have seen something they liked in the stats and then gone and watched them play. Which is probably the right way of doing it.

 

[Dr. Winston]

Presumably the crap signings have been because they've overly relied on the stats and not gone and watched the player properly. Or they've not factored into the equation whether a player will fit our style of play.

Two months or so ago these forums were full of people who thought that Eom and Ronald were complete transfer busts and that Grimes was irreplaceable, so the style of play absolutely has a major part to play in the process.

 

[Cooperman]

There's nothing wrong in using data as part of a decision making process, but you can't use it in isolation and it certainly shouldn't be the primary reason to make a signing - I suspect that's happened too many times here in recent years.

This is a very short and simple explanation. Not much more to be said.

 

[LeonWasTheDogs]

Overperforming on xG is a big red flag.

That's what Cardiff did last season. You can't keep lucking out on that metric. As this season has proved.

(For those who might not understand the metric - think back to the first full PL season under Monk where we finished 8th but Fabianski was man of the match most weeks, then think about what happened the following year)

I think I understand it now, thanks. So underperforming on xG means Lexy’s about to have a meltdown on social media?

 

[LeonWasTheDogs]

Two months or so ago these forums were full of people who thought that Eom and Ronald were complete transfer busts and that Grimes was irreplaceable, so the style of play absolutely has a major part to play in the process.

I still don’t think they’re especially good, if that’s any help. OK, but end product seriously lacking from both.

 

[Sandfields Jack]

Good few xG goals today missed

 

[bytholwyn]

The success of Brighton and especially Brentford is the clearest possible evidence that analytics works, as both clubs have owners whose business is data analytics. And the analytics stuff is only a part of the process. They will mine information on players from as many sources as possible, including, I kid you not, football forums. The truth is it's not going away. In fact with AI it's only going to become a bigger part of recruitment.

I get why people dislike it so much, because it takes the game away from its roots, and ordinary supporters. But claiming it doesn't work is pure denial.

 

[Smurph]

The success of Brighton and especially Brentford is the clearest possible evidence that analytics works, as both clubs have owners whose business is data analytics. And the analytics stuff is only a part of the process. They will mine information on players from as many sources as possible, including, I kid you not, football forums. The truth is it's not going away. In fact with AI it's only going to become a bigger part of recruitment.

I get why people dislike it so much, because it takes the game away from its roots, and ordinary supporters. But claiming it doesn't work is pure denial.

What about the other 18 teams in the division?

 

[Neath_Jack]

What about the other 18 teams in the division?

They’re dinosaurs

 

[Smurph]

They’re dinosaurs

That's where they are going wrong ️

 

[Neath_Jack]

That's where they are going wrong ️

We’re going to be told in a minute that all the other teams use it as well. They may well do to be honest but it won’t change my mind on stats driven football, or specifically the xG shite anyway. And stats driven managers are the worst, and you won’t change my mind.