Season 23/24 | The Official Match Thread | Sunderland FC v Swansea City | The EFL Championship

[monmouth]

Wouldn't rule it out that 45 will keep us safe, maybe a bit more hopeful but I certainly wouldn't rule it out given the top 4s point tally at this stage.

Soton have lost to wurzel, hull and Millwall in the last few weeks. Putting them on any pedestal is ridiculous. Ipswich are also very beatable. Leeds and Fester look less so but they are still not the world beaters they are held up to be. Usual safety is 50 plus isn’t it? I expect that to be similar when all the votes are counted.

 

[jonboyswan]

Shambles of a second half

You have to be the negative and out of touch person ive seen on the site since rejoining. Every statement you make backfires, latest one "ronald has no end product" then 10mins later has 2 goals

 

[cmajack]

Due to our new found form I expect us ro win all our remaining games. Josh will be the key and we'll have more highs than Lowes.

Keeping Fulton out of the team will be the key to that, as it was for most of our fabulous run in last season.

 

[Swanjaxs]

You have to be the negative and out of touch person ive seen on the site since rejoining. Every statement you make backfires, latest one "ronald has no end product" then 10mins later has 2 goals

You need to log on more, Ncfoj has his finger on the pulse compered to some of the bulbs on here, me included

 

[magicdaps10]

Soton have lost to wurzel, hull and Millwall in the last few weeks. Putting them on any pedestal is ridiculous. Ipswich are also very beatable. Leeds and Fester look less so but they are still not the world beaters they are held up to be. Usual safety is 50 plus isn’t it? I expect that to be similar when all the votes are counted.

Taking out deductions

Last year 50points
21/22 47 points
20/21 45 points
19/20 50 points
18/19 41 points
17/18 42 points

That's an average of 45.83 points. I don't see 41 points being realistic but certainly be very safe with 50 points.

3 wins gives us 48 and this will keep us safe. We have 10 wins in 33 games so that's 1 win in 3 games.
12÷3= 4 wins(12 points)

9 draws in 34 games, that's is 1 draw in 3.7games......lets round in to 4.
12÷4=3 draws(3 points).


We are looking at that rate.....15 points in the next 12 games.

Puts us on 54 points.

Put that into perspective, we could get 2 wins and 3 draws(chalking off 2 wins as losses) and we would still end up on 48 points........this would still see us save.

If we mess it up from here, especially given we have got the top 4 teams out of the way..........we would certainly deserve to go down.

 

[Swanjaxs]

We should have enough in the tank to avoid League One next season, at least five teams worse than us in my opinion, maybe more.

But here's the thing, this really is where we are at nowadays, looking over our shoulder, hoping teams below us drop points and we manage to pick up one more than them.

At least it makes for an exciting end to our campaign
#thenextlevel

 

[JustJack]

Maths please. We’ve had enough yanko wanko.

Too long didn't read alert; teams can't accumulate points without others losing them, so if the 6 teams below us (that all could arguably escape relegation) starting winning all their games, the total for staying up still reverts to the mean (around 46)


Well TV is crap so..

The fundamental maths behind a league system is that there is a maximum total of points that can be distributed in any one season (in the Championship, its 3 points for a win x 552 games) - 1656 points, that total starts dropping the moment two teams draw a game (throwing 1 available point away..), the more draws there are in a season, the less that total is going to be, fairly obvious stuff.. but when you have teams at the top accumulating so many points (and wins), and one rotten team at the bottom not doing so, its an important consideration.

If we take the 6 teams below us that are looking to escape relegation, that is 50% of the available points every round/weekend, leaving a maximum 216 points that those teams can get (between them)

Thats great, but when we take into consideration that those 6 teams will inevitably play one another in the remainder of the season, that points total comes down once again, for example we have 5 games against the teams below us..

I'm going to assume thats above average and the other 5 teams have an average of 3 games against the 'bottom 6', leaving a total 20 games (their 15 plus our 5) where teams will play one another in a 'mini league', meaning we can take a total of 60 points off of the maximum total - leaving us with a new total of 156 points available to our bottom 6.

But.. remember that when teams draw, they throw 1 point away.. so if we make a fair assumption that 50% of those games may be drawn, thats another 10 points off of the maximum total available, leaving 146

Lets divide that total by the 6 teams, leaving the assumption that if all of them just decided to get on their bike and hit promotion type form, winning a lot of games, they would average 24 points (24.3 to be exact) between now and the end of the season, in that instance the last team in the relegation zone (Stoke), would reach 59 points.

But lets keep in mind that in this raving bonkers scenario, there would be teams in the league elsewhere that would be dropping points at an alarming rate (swapping form with the 6 other teams, essentially), so lets calculate the average points they would get;

If the 5 teams above us have an average of 3 games against the bottom 6 (we actually have 4) that leaves 18 games and 54 points available, if we keep our assumed 50% win/draw rate, thats a projection of 27 points for the other 5 teams, share it amongst them and call it 5.5 points each

If the team immediately above us (Blackburn, who are actually on the same points as us - 39), only get 5.5 points between now and the end of the season, that leaves them with a total of 44.5 points, demonstrating that the maths behind a league structure will always mean that the average points total for certain positions (in this case 21st), will always revert to a certain parameter (the mean is round 46 I believe)

You may think, well what if those 5 teams above us win their other 9 games against the top half of the league, raising the mean total? You can calculate it and it would mean the total is higher, but its simply a projection that the implosion of form is coming from higher up the table, it becomes a more bonkers scenario when you suggest the top half of the table are going to just collapse in form

You can tweak it to whatever scenario you wish, but the total for safety is always going to fall within a certain paremeter, depending on the share of points in the whole league, my observation is that the points distribution between the top 4 and the bottom is too big for 22nd position to rise above 50 points.

 

[Dillwyn the Dog]

Wouldn't go that far, but we did look significantly worse once Allen went off.

I think that should be the summer priority - a good CDM hopefully a nice bargain from abroad. Perhaps have a look at the South American market - we’ve done alright with Ronald. The market here will just bring us average players for top dollar prices

 

[monmouth]

Too long didn't read alert; teams can't accumulate points without others losing them, so if the 6 teams below us (that all could arguably escape relegation) starting winning all their games, the total for staying up still reverts to the mean (around 46)


Well TV is crap so..

The fundamental maths behind a league system is that there is a maximum total of points that can be distributed in any one season (in the Championship, its 3 points for a win x 552 games) - 1656 points, that total starts dropping the moment two teams draw a game (throwing 1 available point away..), the more draws there are in a season, the less that total is going to be, fairly obvious stuff.. but when you have teams at the top accumulating so many points (and wins), and one rotten team at the bottom not doing so, its an important consideration.

If we take the 6 teams below us that are looking to escape relegation, that is 50% of the available points every round/weekend, leaving a maximum 216 points that those teams can get (between them)

Thats great, but when we take into consideration that those 6 teams will inevitably play one another in the remainder of the season, that points total comes down once again, for example we have 5 games against the teams below us..

I'm going to assume thats above average and the other 5 teams have an average of 3 games against the 'bottom 6', leaving a total 20 games (their 15 plus our 5) where teams will play one another in a 'mini league', meaning we can take a total of 60 points off of the maximum total - leaving us with a new total of 156 points available to our bottom 6.

But.. remember that when teams draw, they throw 1 point away.. so if we make a fair assumption that 50% of those games may be drawn, thats another 10 points off of the maximum total available, leaving 146

Lets divide that total by the 6 teams, leaving the assumption that if all of them just decided to get on their bike and hit promotion type form, winning a lot of games, they would average 24 points (24.3 to be exact) between now and the end of the season, in that instance the last team in the relegation zone (Stoke), would reach 59 points.

But lets keep in mind that in this raving bonkers scenario, there would be teams in the league elsewhere that would be dropping points at an alarming rate (swapping form with the 6 other teams, essentially), so lets calculate the average points they would get;

If the 5 teams above us have an average of 3 games against the bottom 6 (we actually have 4) that leaves 18 games and 54 points available, if we keep our assumed 50% win/draw rate, thats a projection of 27 points for the other 5 teams, share it amongst them and call it 5.5 points each

If the team immediately above us (Blackburn, who are actually on the same points as us - 39), only get 5.5 points between now and the end of the season, that leaves them with a total of 44.5 points, demonstrating that the maths behind a league structure will always mean that the average points total for certain positions (in this case 21st), will always revert to a certain parameter (the mean is round 46 I believe)

You may think, well what if those 5 teams above us win their other 9 games against the top half of the league, raising the mean total? You can calculate it and it would mean the total is higher, but its simply a projection that the implosion of form is coming from higher up the table, it becomes a more bonkers scenario when you suggest the top half of the table are going to just collapse in form

You can tweak it to whatever scenario you wish, but the total for safety is always going to fall within a certain paremeter, depending on the share of points in the whole league, my observation is that the points distribution between the top 4 and the bottom is too big for 22nd position to rise above 50 points.

I meant, ‘maths’ not ‘math’

 

[monmouth]

I think that should be the summer priority - a good CDM hopefully a nice bargain from abroad. Perhaps have a look at the South American market - we’ve done alright with Ronald. The market here will just bring us average players for top dollar prices

In addition to the word class defender and McBurnie? We will be unleashing all over the division next year.

 

[Glyn1]

I meant, ‘maths’ not ‘math’

'Math' instead of 'Maths' is fine. And spelling 'plough' as 'plow' is a definite improvement.

And in other news, the Sunderland forum was impressed. https://www.readytogo.net/smb/threads/is-that-the-worst-45-minutes-youve-seen-from-the-lads.1628315/

 

[jack_lord]

We should have enough in the tank to avoid League One next season, at least five teams worse than us in my opinion, maybe more.

But here's the thing, this really is where we are at nowadays, looking over our shoulder, hoping teams below us drop points and we manage to pick up one more than them.

At least it makes for an exciting end to our campaign
#thenextlevel

I went through the same thoughts earlier.
Well done to those who sold our club to the group formerly known as th hedge fund

 

[Nocountryforoldjack]

You have to be the negative and out of touch person ive seen on the site since rejoining. Every statement you make backfires, latest one "ronald has no end product" then 10mins later has 2 goals

I'm not the only one on here to say we were poor second half but if singling me out gives you a boner crack on.

Totally dominant win today and I fully expect us to be in the playoffs.

 

[Dillwyn the Dog]

In addition to the word class defender and McBurnie? We will be unleashing all over the division next year.

I don’t know why people are suddenly clamouring for McBurnie to return. If we can find one Piroe there are likely more of his mould out there. Could you imagine the damage Piroe could have done with Ronald and Platcheta outside him. The mind boggles!
A central defender absolutely yes too.
We are a different proposition as a team with Joe playing. He has upped Grimes’ game just by being on the pitch. Saying that you’d probably find Fulton reacting in a similar way - he’d raise his game too. Make Joe captain and give him a one year deal as he lifts the team in the way a good captain would.

 

[Ringwood]

So evident the spine needs strengthening.. experienced ball playing CB with a bit of pace. A CM who can create and play box to box ideally and central striker who can make the most of the pace out wide. Our current CB's need help, Allen and Walsh would miss half a season in midfield so that only leaves us the pivot twins. Cullen isn't the answer neither is Yates and our Ukrainian friend is on the naughty step. Lowe admittedly could benefit more from the new squad additions.