Seems Drakeford may just be ahead of the curve

[Professor]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/27/second-covid-wave-forecast-deadly-first/


Perhaps the clown should have listened earlier

 

[Swanseafan]

Can you explain why Wales has a higher infection rate and more case per 100,000 than England. Wales had an extra three week lockdown in the Summer and started lockdown from mid September with 17 of its 22 regions in lockdown by the end of September .

Cases last 7 days PER 100,000
NI 365
Wales 261
England 229
Scotland 169

Total cases per 100,000
Ni 2029
Wales 1613
England 1525
Scotland 1169

Total deaths with coronavirus on death certificate per 100,000.

England 90
Wales 85
Scotland 80
Ni 49

 

[controversial_jack]

Could be, because the ppl in Wales are thick and don't give a shit

 

[Professor]

Can you explain why Wales has a higher infection rate and more case per 100,000 than England. Wales had an extra three week lockdown in the Summer and started lockdown from mid September with 17 of its 22 regions in lockdown by the end of September .

Cases last 7 days PER 100,000
NI 365
Wales 261
England 229
Scotland 169

Total cases per 100,000
Ni 2029
Wales 1613
England 1525
Scotland 1169

Total deaths with coronavirus on death certificate per 100,000.

England 90
Wales 85
Scotland 80
Ni 49

Not without knowing each individual network of transmission. I would hardly describe the restrictions until the national lockdown much of a 'lockdown.' The rates in NI and Wales suggest lockdown was right. Parts of Liverpool were over 500 cases per 100,000 a month ago. It's now at 351 but parts of England like Norfolk (North Norfolk) have rates around 40, but through most of England transmission is rising. People, especially politicians, don't seem to get you need to get a sharper and earlier lockdown/controls to break a transmission cycle. Also needs a proper test and trace system. I think this is what we will see throughout the UK now- 2 week lockdowns until mass vaccination can be used and proved effective. Johnson has clearly messed up by waiting. Now the pain will be more prolonged.

 

[LeonWasTheDog's]

"People, especially politicians, don't seem to get you need to get a sharper and earlier lockdown/controls to break a transmission cycle." Really? Surely they must know. I mean this stuff is on page 1 of the WHO (amongst others) manual of how to tackle a pandemic. It's been put to the test with SARS and swine flu recently. I'd have thought that even the idiots we have in the cabinet know that controls restricting contact and movement are key to tackling it. I'd be gobsmacked if they didn't realise, but are actually just not giving it ultimate priority.

 

[Swanjaxs]

Could be, because the ppl in Wales are thick and don't give a shit

Never mind the ppl of Wales, the good students of Swansea University were absolutely caning it last weekend FACT... itk

 

[LeonWasTheDog's]

Could be, because the ppl in Wales are thick and don't give a shit

Never mind the ppl of Wales, the good students of Swansea University were absolutely caning it last weekend FACT... itk

Not good. Swansea Uni rates still remain lower than the transmission rate in the local community, but it won't stay that way for long if that carries on. It's not unique though - look at that rave in/near Bristol. 700 people there ffs. Bloody idiots. But then they're still kids mostly. I'm not defending them especially, but we were all idiots too when we were younger (some of us still are idiots!).

 

[Professor]

"People, especially politicians, don't seem to get you need to get a sharper and earlier lockdown/controls to break a transmission cycle." Really? Surely they must know. I mean this stuff is on page 1 of the WHO (amongst others) manual of how to tackle a pandemic. It's been put to the test with SARS and swine flu recently. I'd have thought that even the idiots we have in the cabinet know that controls restricting contact and movement are key to tackling it. I'd be gobsmacked if they didn't realise, but are actually just not giving it ultimate priority.

Well they have failed to do it twice whether through ignorance or design

 

[MajorR]

"People, especially politicians, don't seem to get you need to get a sharper and earlier lockdown/controls to break a transmission cycle." Really? Surely they must know. I mean this stuff is on page 1 of the WHO (amongst others) manual of how to tackle a pandemic. It's been put to the test with SARS and swine flu recently. I'd have thought that even the idiots we have in the cabinet know that controls restricting contact and movement are key to tackling it. I'd be gobsmacked if they didn't realise, but are actually just not giving it ultimate priority.

Boris is in a tight spot.

The Conservative Party is divided over the new lockdown. There are briefings, leaks and referral to anonymous disenchanted MP’s who are vehemently against the lockdown in the traditional Tory papers. A small number of the Conservative MP’s have pinned their colours to the mast, but generally it’s been a case of anonymous briefings which means they can snipe and then go back in to the shadows.

On the other side of the coin, I suspect the members of SAGE may have felt pretty uncomfortable earlier this year when there was finger pointing, blame in relation to the speed at which the lockdown was implemented and the numbers who died and I don’t think the SAGE team will want to be on the receiving end of that again. Highlighting the potential consequences and the modelling to Boris and his inner sanctum puts the ball firmly in Boris court.
If Boris’s does nothing, the current situation to developed along the lines of the worst case scenario and the mortality rate increases to 4,000 per day, Boris may well become a figure of national hatred, meanwhile his MP’s who sniped and lurked in the shadows could remain relatively unscathed. If his action saves lives, he will be able to present himself in a much more favourable light. The lockdown will cause economic hardship, but that’s a can he could kick down the road leaving someone else to deal with the fall out, if we see similar scenes to those that were broadcast from Italy earlier this year then Boris is toast and there will be civil unrest.

The below is a BBC report n the current situation in Liverpool, it’s very moving and concerning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54777741

 

[Swanseafan]

Not as if labour is not divided either. Starmer calling for a national lockdown at the same times as Drakeford announces the end of the lockdown in Wales. This is despite Wales have the second highest number of daily cases yesterday 1646. The 7 day average is also still increasing in Wales. Some parts of wales have been in lockdown since mid September, most of Wales since 29th September all of Wales since last week.

As of next Monday people from the high infection areas of Wales are free to travel anywhere in Wales even the very low infection areas.

Has Drakeford lost the plot? What is the scientific evidence that lockdown in Wales should end?

 

[Badlands]

Not as if labour is not divided either. Starmer calling for a national lockdown at the same times as Drakeford announces the end of the lockdown in Wales. This is despite Wales have the second highest number of daily cases yesterday 1646. The 7 day average is also still increasing in Wales. Some parts of wales have been in lockdown since mid September, most of Wales since 29th September all of Wales since last week.

As of next Monday people from the high infection areas of Wales are free to travel anywhere in Wales even the very low infection areas.

Has Drakeford lost the plot? What is the scientific evidence that lockdown in Wales should end?

Two different administrations.
Interesting that the same people who moaned about Wales going into lockdown are now moaning that we are coming out of it ahead of England's later and longer lockdown.
No mention is made of the tiers in England being stricter than lockdown in Wales or that Wales has one set of clear rules and recommendations.
Johnson thought he could bluff, bluster and lie his way through this period ... why wouldn't an utterly self-centred and self-entitled, it's how he has lived his entire life.

 

[KrunchyKarrot]

His short sharp lockdown worked so well, he's managed to drive the figure up. Wee Burnie's doing just as well which is surprising as she's managed to get the life expectancy of men down to 64 in Glasgow. Playing politics with a pandemic is a stupid game IMHO.

 

[LeonWasTheDog's]

His short sharp lockdown worked so well, he's managed to drive the figure up. Wee Burnie's doing just as well which is surprising as she's managed to get the life expectancy of men down to 64 in Glasgow. Playing politics with a pandemic is a stupid game IMHO.

It's not the firebreak that's driven rates up, it's the people carrying on as if things are normal after the firebreak (not blaming them all - many don't have a choice). The firbreak wasn't even that strict. Our response should have been recalibrated. If we'd have had the firebreak as the normal level of response and then held back much stricter controls if needed, the transmission rates would be a fraction of what they are. That would have cost money though of course, to guarantee incomes and protect businesses that were closed and where parents had to saty home to look after kids, etc. A price worth paying imo.

 

[AceJack]

Not as if labour is not divided either. Starmer calling for a national lockdown at the same times as Drakeford announces the end of the lockdown in Wales. This is despite Wales have the second highest number of daily cases yesterday 1646. The 7 day average is also still increasing in Wales. Some parts of wales have been in lockdown since mid September, most of Wales since 29th September all of Wales since last week.

As of next Monday people from the high infection areas of Wales are free to travel anywhere in Wales even the very low infection areas.

Has Drakeford lost the plot? What is the scientific evidence that lockdown in Wales should end?

Labour isn’t divided on the issue of lockdowns. The Conservatives are. Either factually wrong or disingenuous to suggest otherwise.

 

[AceJack]

Reminder that the firebreak was as limited as it was because the UK government wouldn’t provide financial support for a more stringent lockdown until after the UK government had already U-turned on the issue.