Will trump

[waynekerr55]

Against my better judgement, and, unfortunately for the planet, I do think DT will win again in November, through a mixture of nefarious methods and the unbelievable number of complete bell-ends in the US that actually think that he is great. If Biden wins I will be so chuffed.

If this happens, we are fùcked.

 

[exiledclaseboy]

He won’t lose

He will do well do win from his current position. Model in the Economist today suggests he has a 7% chance. Given the rising Covid-19 cases in the South, shot economy and bad feeling around BLM he will need a spectacular turn around to win in November. The model suggests Biden has a 91% chance. All models are wrong of course, but they are often useful predictors

What surprised me was the polling in Florida leaning heavily in Bidens favour.

I also read that if he decided to cancel the election then he would have to vacate his position in January with Pelosi as interim. Could you imagine that?

He can’t cancel the election. It needs a change in the law to do that, or change the date. And even if an election hasn’t happened, the president’s term ends on 20 January. If there hasn’t been an election by then the House of Representatives picks the president and the senate the VP. That would all be very entertaining but won’t happen. The election will go ahead in November as planned.

 

[Dr. Winston]

The only chance he's got left is if Biden keels over between now and November, which is far from unlikely, given how doddery he is.

Trump ain't much better.

America is a lunatic place. Being vaguely centre right there would put you smack bang in the Democrat camp.

 

[Ebo]

He won’t lose

He will do well do win from his current position. Model in the Economist today suggests he has a 7% chance. Given the rising Covid-19 cases in the South, shot economy and bad feeling around BLM he will need a spectacular turn around to win in November. The model suggests Biden has a 91% chance. All models are wrong of course, but they are often useful predictors

What surprised me was the polling in Florida leaning heavily in Bidens favour.

I also read that if he decided to cancel the election then he would have to vacate his position in January with Pelosi as interim. Could you imagine that?

He can’t cancel the election. It needs a change in the law to do that, or change the date. And even if an election hasn’t happened, the president’s term ends on 20 January. If there hasn’t been an election by then the House of Representatives picks the president and the senate the VP. That would all be very entertaining but won’t happen. The election will go ahead in November as planned.

What I should have said was delay / change date due to covid.

He’s shutting himself over the postal vote.

 

[exiledclaseboy]

He won’t lose

He will do well do win from his current position. Model in the Economist today suggests he has a 7% chance. Given the rising Covid-19 cases in the South, shot economy and bad feeling around BLM he will need a spectacular turn around to win in November. The model suggests Biden has a 91% chance. All models are wrong of course, but they are often useful predictors

What surprised me was the polling in Florida leaning heavily in Bidens favour.

I also read that if he decided to cancel the election then he would have to vacate his position in January with Pelosi as interim. Could you imagine that?

He can’t cancel the election. It needs a change in the law to do that, or change the date. And even if an election hasn’t happened, the president’s term ends on 20 January. If there hasn’t been an election by then the House of Representatives picks the president and the senate the VP. That would all be very entertaining but won’t happen. The election will go ahead in November as planned.

What I should have said was delay / change date due to covid.

He’s shutting himself over the postal vote.

A change in the date needs a change in the law too. Good luck to him getting that through a divided Congress.

 

[dailew]

The only chance he's got left is if Biden keels over between now and November, which is far from unlikely, given how doddery he is.

Trump ain't much better.

America is a lunatic place. Being vaguely centre right there would put you smack bang in the Democrat camp.

I find their antipathy towards stricter gun laws and universal health care baffling.

IIRC the US spends around €10,000 per head on health care while European countries spend about €4000.

The Dems should be promoting it as a way people would save money but have allowed the Republicans to portray it as an extra cost.

I also find the death penalty deeply repugnant. Not sure I could live in a country that sanctions what amounts to murder by the state.

 

[Pegojack]

As a matter of interest, can any American politics experts tell us what would happen if Biden had, say, a stroke a couple of weeks before the election and was medically unable to continue? What do the Democrats do then? Would the running mate take over?

 

[exiledclaseboy]

As a matter of interest, can any American politics experts tell us what would happen if Biden had, say, a stroke a couple of weeks before the election and was medically unable to continue? What do the Democrats do then? Would the running mate take over?

My best guess is that Biden would still be on the ballot and if he won and was unable to take office the VP candidate would become president.

 

[Dgt73]

The Economist is not overtly political either way- it’s a Monte Carlo model. You put in all the data parameters and run it randomly many thousands of times (like spins on a roulette wheel or indeed Dr Strange in Avengers) Plenty of other models agreeing to a comfortable Biden win-
Most not associated with media.
I fully expect it to be much closer, but at the moment Trump is doing a good job of shooting himself in the foot. Will be interesting if he has to release his tax returns before the election

He’ll make sure he won’t have to do that

Don’t forget that when it comes to voting the yanks are likely to vote anyone in, even someone who’s not a politician just like 4 years ago

And you think being governed by “career politicians” is better ?

 

[Best_loser]

He’ll make sure he won’t have to do that

Don’t forget that when it comes to voting the yanks are likely to vote anyone in, even someone who’s not a politician just like 4 years ago

And you think being governed by “career politicians” is better ?

Better than career conmen

 

[Dgt73]

And you think being governed by “career politicians” is better ?

Better than career conmen

I don’t think you are in any position to call someone a conman, after you posting fake news.

 

[Best_loser]

Better than career conmen

I don’t think you are in any position to call someone a conman, after you posting fake news.

Unproven news, anyway, I hadn't been in here long and I always heard about some dgt guy who was the biggest peddler of fake news, is that you ?

 

[Dgt73]

I don’t think you are in any position to call someone a conman, after you posting fake news.

Unproven news, anyway, I hadn't been in here long and I always heard about some dgt guy who was the biggest peddler of fake news, is that you ?

Not unproven at all. More like lies and fake news, I’ve only noticed you recently and you seem to be as thick as two short planks

 

[Best_loser]

Unproven news, anyway, I hadn't been in here long and I always heard about some dgt guy who was the biggest peddler of fake news, is that you ?

Not unproven at all. More like lies and fake news, I’ve only noticed you recently and you seem to be as thick as two short planks

Ah so no denial, you are dgt. The legendary king of fake news
There they are again , those wankers smileys

 

[Dgt73]

Not unproven at all. More like lies and fake news, I’ve only noticed you recently and you seem to be as thick as two short planks

Ah so no denial, you are dgt. The legendary king of fake news
There they are again , those wankers smileys

Deflection tactics