Possession football overhyped?

[Swansea93]

Tottenham 1-2 Nottingham Forest: How Nuno Espirito Santo's side are bucking possession trend

Nottingham Forest could become the first side in Premier League history to finish in the top four with less than 40% average possession.

www.bbc.co.uk

Good read

 

[Andrew - North Hill]

There is nothing wrong with possession football. Most successful teams at the top of the game, winning things, tend to have most of the ball.

For a short while, about 10-15 years ago, teams like us cottoned on to that and made it work for us. But football has changed since. Teams have cottoned on how to counteract that style. But we've been stuck in a bit of a time warp, trying unsuccessfully to replicate that era.

These days it's about having individual matchday game plans for how you can best hurt this week's opposition. Which may or may not involve having loads of the ball.

 

[bakajack]

There is nothing wrong with possession football. Most successful teams at the top of the game, winning things, tend to have most of the ball.

For a short while, about 10-15 years ago, teams like us cottoned on to that and made it work for us. But football has changed since. Teams have cottoned on how to counteract that style. But we've been stuck in a bit of a time warp, trying unsuccessfully to replicate that era.

These days it's about having individual matchday game plans for how you can best hurt this week's opposition. Which may or may not involve having loads of the ball.

I agree totally, we were ahead of the curve when it came to embracing possession and passing football and during our rise very few teams outside of the Premier League had experience of facing it or how to combat it.

Ever since then we treaded water and failed to adapt with the changing of the times, we hired well when we first came down with Potter and Cooper (despite his unpopular football he DID get results) but then fell for the trap of confusing the Swansea Way with total possession football, hiring knockoff Pep clones one after the other who confused absolute possession with actually... winning games.

The truth is that total possession football has now had so much exposure over the last decade that teams have had plenty of exposure to it and opportunities to learn to adapt to it and combat it. The rise of the gegenpress is because it is as close to a natural predator of the tikitaka style of football and requires far less of a glass ceiling in terms of requirements of composure under pressure and skill.

 

[bytholwyn]

The really telling stat in that article is that only two teams since 2003/04 have managed a top 4 finish with less than 50 per cent possession. That's two out of 80.

It's great that Forest have done so well this season with a counter attacking approach. Football without variety is boring. But as PSG demonstrated last night the demise of possession football has been over hyped. Next season I expect to see Man City back as Champions or runners up and Forest in the lower half.

The challenge for all clubs is to continually innovate, whether that's by dominating possession or not.

 

[RodgerTheDodger]

The really telling stat in that article is that only two teams since 2003/04 have managed a top 4 finish with less than 50 per cent possession. That's two out of 80.

It's great that Forest have done so well this season with a counter attacking approach. Football without variety is boring. But as PSG demonstrated last night the demise of possession football has been over hyped. Next season I expect to see Man City back as Champions or runners up and Forest in the lower half.

The challenge for all clubs is to continually innovate, whether that's by dominating possession or not.

You are seduced by the term 'possession'. Holding the ball within your own 40 metre line and pushing it up and down the back line is 'possession' but it does nothing for you unless you want to shut down the game. The opposition can relax, let you get on with it while they have a rest until they are ready.

Holding the ball inside the opponents 40m line is totally different, pushing it forward and back, up and down the edge of their area. They have to come after you, they have to work their socks off, they will make mistakes.

So possession stats don't really enlighten us.

 

[MrSwerve]

Good teams are generally going to have more than 50% possession whatever their style of play is, though. There’s possession and then there’s possession…there’s really no need to clamour for 80% of the ball when you do eff all with it.

Edit: that was supposed to quote bytholwyn.

 

[FearOfAJackPlanet]

The really telling stat in that article is that only two teams since 2003/04 have managed a top 4 finish with less than 50 per cent possession. That's two out of 80.

It's great that Forest have done so well this season with a counter attacking approach. Football without variety is boring. But as PSG demonstrated last night the demise of possession football has been over hyped. Next season I expect to see Man City back as Champions or runners up and Forest in the lower half.

The challenge for all clubs is to continually innovate, whether that's by dominating possession or not.

Your last sentence is all that really needs to be said, but given it's a discussion forum, it would be boring to just leave it at that! so..

...I think it's possible to read too much into that stat you highlighted about top teams having over 50% possession. There's a difference between simply ending up with over 50% as you have better players and are spending more of the game attacking than running around chasing shadows, and having more possession as that's the driving intent of your style of play. I would assume if you looked down the % stats of the whole 20 teams in the EPL over that time, the % stats would go down as you get to the poorer teams with the lesser players. I think it's just what you'd' expect rather than a lesson to be learnt.

 

[bytholwyn]

A long time ago I came across at article that showed a remarkable correlation between our possession stats and our premier league position. From our first season our possession counts dropped season on season, dropping below 50 per cent in Monk's second season. By the time we were relegated we had just over 40 per cent possession if my memory serves.

I agree entirely that it's what you do with possession that matters, with the raw stats meaning very little. And I'm fairly chilled about having just over 50 per cent possession under Sheehan, especially if we continue to control games in the way we have in most games under Sheehan. I guess I'm wary of deviating too far from the approaches that have brought success in the past. I guess Sheehan wouldn't have got the gig if the likes of Montague were concerned about that.

 

[monmouth]

Everyone harks back to 'possession as if we were world beaters. Plenty of teams kicked our arses. Sunderland comes to mind when Rodgers made an idiot of himself and their fans summed it up as 'Swansea danced with all the pretty birds and got nowhere whereas we took the game girl home and rogered her senseless'.

Possession is useful only if it has a purpose, and then it becomes a nonsense concept as of course the more of it you have the better. If you are just going to piss about playing slowly in front of an opposition laughing at you, it's often better not to have the ball and wait until it's worth you having it.

Laudrup knew the score, but apart from winning a cup which was amazing, we weren't particularly successful and there were as many shite games as good ones. I remember Everton taking us to pieces at the lib and there was a lot of discontent. In fact if we hadn't nicked a close ugly game against Wiggy, Laudrup was in a bit of shit.

The only time it really set us apart was when we used it to attack. In league one through Anderson, Bodde and Jase, in championship with Sinclair, Dobbie and Dyer. WHen we have players that don't go forward but turn back, Grimes, Fulton, and everyone under Martin and Willy all the time to keep the ball 'possession' is useless.

We should use the ball when we have it, and when we don't keep tight and get it back. Then shove it in the onion bag!

 

[Andrew - North Hill]

This season's Champions, Liverpool, are a great example of not being wedded to one way of playing.

They've won games with less of the ball, they've won games with loads of it. Sometimes they have played short & sharp passes, other times they have invited teams on to them and then gone long to Salah and Diaz to use their pace. Sometimes they've held an insanely high defensive line; other times they've been happy in a low block.

Slot has shown this season that you don't always have to be dogmatic and stubborn, you can also win matches and leagues by being smart and reacting to what is in front of you. Very clever manager.

 

[bytholwyn]

To finish outside the top 10 only on goals scored was an astonishing achievement for a club of our resources, that shouldn't be underplayed. We were everybody's favourites to finish bottom let alone be relegated. Sure there were some bad days, inevitably so, but there were more good ones than could have been expected for a bargain basement squad. There was one game at St James's Park where we completed over 800 passes, which still makes the top 10 in the PL. A 9th placed finish under Laudrup and winning the League Cup isn't to be sniffed at either.

Having said that it's fair to say it's much harder to win games playing a possession heavy way than it was back then. This is mainly down to much more effective pressing, at Championship as well as PL level.

The challenge for us is how we can control games and ensure most of the game in the opposition half. As long as we can achieve that then we should win more games than we lose.

 

[bytholwyn]

This season's Champions, Liverpool, are a great example of not being wedded to one way of playing.

They've won games with less of the ball, they've won games with loads of it. Sometimes they have played short & sharp passes, other times they have invited teams on to them and then gone long to Salah and Diaz to use their pace. Sometimes they've held an insanely high defensive line; other times they've been happy in a low block.

Slot has shown this season that you don't always have to be dogmatic and stubborn, you can also win matches and leagues by being smart and reacting to what is in front of you. Very clever manager.

All good points, but it's worth adding that Liverpool have still averaged over 58 per cent possession, behind City and Chelsea. Everything else being equal it's still better to have the ball than not have it.

 

[DockerJack]

Just my opinion, but agree that football is mid change currently and I personally think for the better. It’s why I think that next season it won’t necessary go back to ‘type’ and Man City will be champions again next season and Liverpool will be dominant for a while under Slot.
Think it’s been highlighted that around the 2010’s possession based football became very successful with Pep the main person driving this, partly because nobody had an answer to it and we got up to the Premier League where really we didn’t have a right to be, because we were ahead of the curve in this way.
Later on teams adapted a way to counter this, Klopp’s ‘press’ maybe the biggest example. Trouble is teams are still holding on to and hoping to find the next Pep (or in our case Martinez/Rodgers/Laudrup) with a ‘philosophy’ that is possession, but this overruling everything else, Martin and Williams for us a prime example. As I said though I think this has been found out and football is moving on.
In my opinion, the new ‘style’ or philosophy that seems to be emerging is teams and managers that adapt to teams that they’re playing, even changing during games as well, with Slot I think the biggest example of this at the top. It’s the reason that I’m excited at Sheehan’s appointment, as I’ve seen him do this with his set up and tactics between the Derby/Plymouth games being an example.
Proof will be in the pudding and I think he’ll need to be backed with player recruitment, but I’m more excited now than I have been in a long time with a manager appointment and have enjoyed watching the Swans more under Sheehan than I have in a long time as well.

 

[Andrew - North Hill]

In my opinion, the new ‘style’ or philosophy that seems to be emerging is teams and managers that adapt to teams that they’re playing, even changing during games as well, with Slot I think the biggest example of this at the top. It’s the reason that I’m excited at Sheehan’s appointment, as I’ve seen him do this with his set up and tactics between the Derby/Plymouth games being an example.

Totally agree.

I think some people mistook the Derby game as a tactical error on Sheehan's part because with the ball we weren't good.

But he had John Eustace by the balls that day imo. He came down here thinking Swansea are a pitter patter tippy tappy side, get in their faces and we'll win. He didn't expect us to get in their faces twice as much they did us, we were ready for a scrap and then some. He got taken by surprise.

I think Sheehan deserves a lot of credit for that setup, it was cleverer than he was given credit for.

 

[ARQS]

Just a reminder that Roberto Martinez became our manager over 18 years ago. To long for those days now would be like talking about 1989 when he was appointed.

Leaving aside the merits of playing football that way again, I'm not even sure if it's possible these days for a club with our resources. Everyone's competing for the same sort of player now whereas when we started doing it, we were going against the grain.

I'd also point out that for all our possession based football, we had plenty of players who could get a goal from distance/out of nothing rather than getting on the end of a wonderfully crafted move. Gylfi, Bodde, Scotland, etc all complemented our style so it was never always ripping teams apart with intricate passing