So all 2nd round of games are finished, and while I thought it would be almost impossible there IS potential for Wales to not qualify, but it does take some doing..
Group A
Obviously it starts for Wales with their game against Italy, and the combination of a Wales loss and Swiss win, with the tiebreakers for determining positions in the group being GD and GF
If Switzerland win and do not match Wales GD, then Wales take 2nd place
If Switzerland win and match Wales GD, but do not score a minimum of 2 goals to match Wales GF tally (currently 3), then Wales will take 2nd place
So for example a Wales 4-0 loss and Swiss 1-0 win, would see Wales finish in 2nd.
Wales could do with scoring a goal, and avoiding a general hammering of their GD.
Keeping their GD in positive territory is important
If Wales are to finish 3rd, they face an anxious couple of days watching other teams play their games out.
Group B
Russia and Finland are the only teams that can reach 4 points as 3rd place finishers
A draw for both teams is the only scenario that can work against Wales, which would mean Finland finishing on 0 GD, and Russia on -2
A Denmark/Belgium win ensures that the 3rd place team in that group stays on 3 pts.
Group C
Ukraine and Austria are the only teams that can reach 4 points as 3rd place finishers, and as they play one another, a draw in their game would be the scenario that works against Wales
This would be bad because they both have 0 GD and a decent number of goals (Ukraine 4, Austria 3), so a score draw for would really cause a headache.
Group D
The only way the 3rd place team in this group can get 4 points, is if there is to be a winner out of the Croatia/Scotland game, Scotland in particular probably need a decent sized win (currently -2 GD), while Croatia are on -1
Group E
This is a bit messy, but essentially the only way the 3rd place finisher gets 4 points is if Poland beat Sweden and join them on 4 points, this combined with a draw for Slovakia against Spain, will put the top 3 on 4 points. In this scenario, the bigger the Poland win, the better it would be for Wales, as they would increase their GD, at Swedens expense, a 1-0 Poland win would leave Sweden on 0 GD
Group F
Again this is messy, as they can all finish on 4 points
Essentially a France win against Portugal is the only scenario here where a 3rd place finisher cannot reach 4 points, as a win for either Germany/Hungary, would result in the winner taking 2nd place,and a draw would leave Germany in 2nd place.
The worry for Wales is that they are severely behind in regard to GF against these teams(Portugal have 6, Germany have 5), with only Hungary on negative GD
Hopefully it doesn't go down to the last game.
So an example of the run of results that would knock Wales out would be
Italy 4-0 Wales
Swiss 2-0 Turkey
Ukraine 2-2 Austria
Finland 2-2 Belgium
Russia 2-2 Denmark
Croatia 0-3 Scotland
Slovakia 1-1 Spain
Sweden 0-1 Poland
Germany 2-1 Hungary
Portugal 1-0 France
In this scenario, every 3rd place team finishes on 4 points with a minimum GD of 0, Wales would miss out on -2
Obviously this is all moot if Wales win, draw, or even keep the defeat to a maximum of a 2 goal margin.
Lets see how it goes!
