Immigration (net nearly 1m annual)

[rockinj]

I doubt there’s anyone who thinks that number makes sense. It’s too high. However the way the Country is structurally right now, how do we realistically get that number down?

I know there are a lot of tup people out there who think that’s the “boat people” because of a lot of nonsense peddled in the right wing press and encouraged by populists to shift the Country to the right but in reality that’s a small fraction of the number. It’s also a consequence of foreign adventures which have had disastrous impacts and more isolationist approach on global trade.

The big issue is a very low birth rate and in parallel an ageing population.

How do we square this circle because without a young workforce motivated in greater numbers how do you pay for an increasing number of dependent people?

When you also account for a large proportion being foreign students, how do you reduce this number without making our universities bankrupt? Probably the only solution here is a slimmed down sector with a model more like it was over 30 years ago.

Then we have to account for leaving the EU and the single market which has reduced our pool of readily available labour that filled gaps and with that we’ve had to increase VISAs from non EU which of course was always going to be the case to those of us who supported remain.

In my long winded post, I think this Gov needs to be brave and not talk about immigration as one collective number.

The “boat people” and asylum should be split from the rest.

Students should be split from numbers too.

The real debating point is the wider labour market and shortages and also the declining birth rate.

Start discussing this stuff an intelligent informed manner and it will help move the debate on from the populists.

“The boat people” should be tackled across borders, it needs a solution at source. But to win these arguments it needs a braver set of politicians to take on the tabloid instincts and misunderstandings.

We don’t stop talking about the subject even though it’s suggested we can’t talk about it. That’s clearly nonsense. I believe the problem has been the conflation. This needs to stop.

 

[Cooperman]

#DOGE

Interesting point re the universities. I was at an open day with my daughter a few weeks back and was astonished by some of the subjects that you can take a degree in these days. We seem to be going for a quantity over quality approach, so how about cutting back on some of the subjects like horology (the study of clocks), scaling back some of these universities and their fixed cost base, and making it more cost effective for British students and reducing the need for extortionate foreign student fees?

An overhaul of the benefits system should be the driver to get more folk into work, it’s too easy today to sit at home and draw benefits akin to national wage. It’s a sad indictment of our country when there’s an Eastern European person who will jump at a blue collar job which a British person is too lazy and frankly doesn’t need to do.

 

[rockinj]

#DOGE

Interesting point re the universities. I was at an open day with my daughter a few weeks back and was astonished by some of the subjects that you can take a degree in these days. We seem to be going for a quantity over quality approach, so how about cutting back on some of the subjects like horology (the study of clocks), scaling back some of these universities and their fixed cost base, and making it more cost effective for British students and reducing the need for extortionate foreign student fees?

An overhaul of the benefits system should be the driver to get more folk into work, it’s too easy today to sit at home and draw benefits akin to national wage. It’s a sad indictment of our country when there’s an Eastern European person who will jump at a blue collar job which a British person is too lazy and frankly doesn’t need to do.

The problem you have with the lazy brits angle is that the gaps needing filling are often needing distinct qualifications. They are not unskilled roles. Some are of course.

There is a lot of people out of the labour market who should be in it. Agreed. It’s a catastrophe the large amount of young people who are pulling themselves out of the labour market because of “ill health” now of course some are but no where near the numbers that are quoted. You also have a lot of older skilled people who have left the labour market and that is not good either.

I think we can agree though it’s going to need bold action. Large scale immigration is not an answer it’s a sticking plaster. But the idea we can’t have it without damaging the Country in short term is for the birds. Structurally we need it.

 

[Cooperman]

The problem you have with the lazy brits angle is that the gaps needing filling are often needing distinct qualifications. They are not unskilled roles. Some are of course.

There is a lot of people out of the labour market who should be in it. Agreed. It’s a catastrophe the large amount of young people who are pulling themselves out of the labour market because of “ill health” now of course some are but no where near the numbers that are quoted. You also have a lot of older skilled people who have left the labour market and that is not good either.

I think we can agree though it’s going to need bold action. Large scale immigration is not an answer it’s a sticking plaster. But the idea we can’t have it without damaging the Country in short term is for the birds. Structurally we need it.

No argument from me, this is absolutely not an overnight fix, and there’s a lot to realign before it even becomes a possibility.

Agree with the last paragraph as well. Politics and procrastination have contributed to where we are today. It needs a semi nuclear approach in some areas.

 

[Professor]

#DOGE

Interesting point re the universities. I was at an open day with my daughter a few weeks back and was astonished by some of the subjects that you can take a degree in these days. We seem to be going for a quantity over quality approach, so how about cutting back on some of the subjects like horology (the study of clocks), scaling back some of these universities and their fixed cost base, and making it more cost effective for British students and reducing the need for extortionate foreign student fees?

An overhaul of the benefits system should be the driver to get more folk into work, it’s too easy today to sit at home and draw benefits akin to national wage. It’s a sad indictment of our country when there’s an Eastern European person who will jump at a blue collar job which a British person is too lazy and frankly doesn’t need to do.

That's not a good example as a single university which has a specialism and link to local industry (Birmingham and jewellery) but there are many courses and many universities. However, the majority of overseas students are in STEMM, clinical degrees or professional leaning subjects like law and economics. The current Tier 4 visa regulations make the 'bums on seats' recruitment of places like UEL almost extinct. Policy by recent governments mean the sector is now struggling because of falls in overseas students. Cutting back now will mean tens of thousands of redundancies.

 

[Cooperman]

That's not a good example as a single university which has a specialism and link to local industry (Birmingham and jewellery) but there are many courses and many universities. However, the majority of overseas students are in STEMM, clinical degrees or professional leaning subjects like law and economics. The current Tier 4 visa regulations make the 'bums on seats' recruitment of places like UEL almost extinct. Policy by recent governments mean the sector is now struggling because of falls in overseas students. Cutting back now will mean tens of thousands of redundancies.

Or it can be considered that universities have been run like a private enterprise, grown at an unsustainable rate and in a way that means they now cannot react quick enough to policy change.

Whilst I don’t consider nationalisation as the answer, something needs to be done as ultimately we are burdening the workforce of tomorrow with what amounts to a huge tax.

 

[westside]

500k left the country and 600k died

 

[Pentyrchjack]

Or it can be considered that universities have been run like a private enterprise, grown at an unsustainable rate and in a way that means they now cannot react quick enough to policy change.

Whilst I don’t consider nationalisation as the answer, something needs to be done as ultimately we are burdening the workforce of tomorrow with what amounts to a huge tax.

When you look at the huge property development universities have made - Swansea University being an example - it's no wonder they have veered away from the core mission / purpose and got into the financial clag.

 

[Professor]

Or it can be considered that universities have been run like a private enterprise, grown at an unsustainable rate and in a way that means they now cannot react quick enough to policy change.

Whilst I don’t consider nationalisation as the answer, something needs to be done as ultimately we are burdening the workforce of tomorrow with what amounts to a huge tax.

Ultimately that was a decision of the Cameron government to move to the current fee and loan model. Prior to that fees mainly paid by taxation through HEFCE/HEFCW/SHEFC with the top up fee from the Blair Government. Now only clinical and some engineering degrees get a tax-payer top up. Working in Vet Schools I can tell you the University gets roughly £20k income per U.K. student. It costs roughly £23k to deliver teaching. Obviously for medicine there are NHS facilities but for vets we pay for them. So given we can take an overseas student for £40k per year you can see why they are needed. The investment across the sector has helped in the market against aggressive competitors in US and Australia. We have a fair few yanks, canadians and SE Asians as well have accreditation with the American regulator and cost less than half the big US vet schools. But this model does not work for many courses

Someone has to pay. It’s either the student, tax payer or a combination. Not an easy answer, but to cut back would lead to losses of many good jobs

 

[jack_lord]

"As of December 2, 2024, 33,684 people had crossed the English Channel in small boats in 2024. This is higher than the 29,437 people who arrived in 2023, but lower than the 45,755 who arrived in 2022."
in the broader context of the UK population it is a relatively small number and the net immigration figure in the year up to June 2024 was 728000 with 1.2 million arriving and just under half a million leaving. How we interpret those figures for the future is very difficult and we do expect those numbers to drop after 2025. We have an ageing population but at some point in the future, due to a lower birth rate, those numbers will be less significant as they will go through the natural cycle of life and hit the old age bracket and there will be some form of equilibrium of contributions and deductions from the gdp. The problem we have is the now - which is why we are having to to work longer than the previous generations.
The university sector is accelerating in to an abyss. The overseas students are propping up a number of even established institutions but only just. There are a number who are at the point of mass redundancies or face bankruptcy thought the government will not actually let this happen and it will probably fall on the tax payer again.
As far as I am aware, Swansea's institutions are not in immediate trouble but if they were, what on earth will happen to the huge amount of student accommodation that has been created?

 

[Professor]

"As of December 2, 2024, 33,684 people had crossed the English Channel in small boats in 2024. This is higher than the 29,437 people who arrived in 2023, but lower than the 45,755 who arrived in 2022."
in the broader context of the UK population it is a relatively small number and the net immigration figure in the year up to June 2024 was 728000 with 1.2 million arriving and just under half a million leaving. How we interpret those figures for the future is very difficult and we do expect those numbers to drop after 2025. We have an ageing population but at some point in the future, due to a lower birth rate, those numbers will be less significant as they will go through the natural cycle of life and hit the old age bracket and there will be some form of equilibrium of contributions and deductions from the gdp. The problem we have is the now - which is why we are having to to work longer than the previous generations.
The university sector is accelerating in to an abyss. The overseas students are propping up a number of even established institutions but only just. There are a number who are at the point of mass redundancies or face bankruptcy thought the government will not actually let this happen and it will probably fall on the tax payer again.
As far as I am aware, Swansea's institutions are not in immediate trouble but if they were, what on earth will happen to the huge amount of student accommodation that has been created?

They are not in a good place financially though equally not on the edge of collapse like some (even in the Russell Group). Everywhere is cutting back.

 

[Wing_Stand_Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1865716206134542679

 

[jack_lord]

They are not in a good place financially though equally not on the edge of collapse like some (even in the Russell Group). Everywhere is cutting back.

York has serious financial difficulties. They have even lowered their entry requirements to overseas students in the hope they may travel there. The Russell Group has indeed highlighted the urgent risks to the sector's long-term financial health.

 

[Longlostjack]

As Coops points out it seems that Universities are run like businesses these days. They need to attract punters willing to pay fees through slick marketing. They need to get as many foreign students as possible paying full fees. Then there are the pension liabilities. It doesn’t sound sustainable to me. Something has gone badly wrong.

 

[Professor]

As Coops points out it seems that Universities are run like businesses these days. They need to attract punters willing to pay fees through slick marketing. They need to get as many foreign students as possible paying full fees. Then there are the pension liabilities. It doesn’t sound sustainable to me. Something has gone badly wrong.

Basically yes. Two factors-the expansion under Blair (for UK students) for which the initial £3K fee was introduced to build infrastructure. The Cameron government then moved to the current fee system whilst vastly reducing government support but also lifting caps on student numbers and basically making it a free for all for both home and overseas students-creating a competitive market and inevitably reduced offers of entry to fill programmes and get the fees in. So a competitive business. Some places (notably Nottingham) have overreached into overseas markets are getting badly bitten by lower student numbers. Predictably students don't want to come to a country where racism is increasingly rife and getting a visa increasingly challenging.