Coronavirus- new spike coming?

[Professor]

I think there is genuine concern we are at the foothills of a new spike. The majority of cases are in the under 45s which is reflected in the low death rate (although under the old PHE system would be 98 yesterday- but there is no good answer to a cut off of 28 days or not). The main concerns I see are:
1. Clear rise in cases and a near trebling of the positive test rate which is getting close to 2%
2. Rises in work-based infections
3. Large rise in school age kids-even prior to school returns in England and Wales
4. Impending university return. The US has 50,000 cases associated with universities and colleges.
Some like Texas A and M are over 700.

Local lockdowns are close in Leeds, the NE, Wirral and elsewhere. Be careful, but don’t be scared.

 

[Best_loser]

Wonder how long the hospital at the Welsh rugby stadium will be there

 

[benny]

I think there is genuine concern we are at the foothills of a new spike. The majority of cases are in the under 45s which is reflected in the low death rate (although under the old PHE system would be 98 yesterday- but there is no good answer to a cut off of 28 days or not). The main concerns I see are:
1. Clear rise in cases and a near trebling of the positive test rate which is getting close to 2%
2. Rises in work-based infections
3. Large rise in school age kids-even prior to school returns in England and Wales
4. Impending university return. The US has 50,000 cases associated with universities and colleges.
Some like Texas A and M are over 700.

Local lockdowns are close in Leeds, the NE, Wirral and elsewhere. Be careful, but don’t be scared.

Does it matter if it stays with those under 45 mainly? Obviously the old or those with PE conditions will have to be careful, but I assume they will until there is a vaccine anyway? Still low deaths as you say due to demographic age range....crack on with herd immunity?

 

[MrSwerve]

How are they handling lectures up with you, Prof? At mine we are going for blended delivery, with large classes being delivered online. We are providing face-to-face lectures but limiting to 40 in a class. I wonder what attendance will be like and whether students will actually want to mix, even while being socially distanced. I’m not entirely looking forward to a return to the lecture rooms in a few weeks time, to be honest.

It does feel like we are ill-prepared at the moment though. Surprised how quiet the unions have been, I can only assume that they are biding their time.

 

[controversial_jack]

The second wave is rampaging through Europe, France, Spain, even the Czechs. There's no reason to think it won't follow over here

 

[Professor]

I think there is genuine concern we are at the foothills of a new spike. The majority of cases are in the under 45s which is reflected in the low death rate (although under the old PHE system would be 98 yesterday- but there is no good answer to a cut off of 28 days or not). The main concerns I see are:
1. Clear rise in cases and a near trebling of the positive test rate which is getting close to 2%
2. Rises in work-based infections
3. Large rise in school age kids-even prior to school returns in England and Wales
4. Impending university return. The US has 50,000 cases associated with universities and colleges.
Some like Texas A and M are over 700.

Local lockdowns are close in Leeds, the NE, Wirral and elsewhere. Be careful, but don’t be scared.

Does it matter if it stays with those under 45 mainly? Obviously the old or those with PE conditions will have to be careful, but I assume they will until there is a vaccine anyway? Still low deaths as you say due to demographic age range....crack on with herd immunity?

The problem is the evidence suggests you get creep into the older population and then deaths rise again. This is the case in Spain and was in Florida.
Herd immunity needs about 40 million cases with long term protective immunity . Even a conservative 0.5% mortality rate equates to 200,000 more deaths and god knows what long term effects. I am afraid we will have to live with distancing, masks and targeted local lockdowns until next year at least. Only going to get herd immunity through vaccines.

 

[Professor]

How are they handling lectures up with you, Prof? At mine we are going for blended delivery, with large classes being delivered online. We are providing face-to-face lectures but limiting to 40 in a class. I wonder what attendance will be like and whether students will actually want to mix, even while being socially distanced. I’m not entirely looking forward to a return to the lecture rooms in a few weeks time, to be honest.

It does feel like we are ill-prepared at the moment though. Surprised how quiet the unions have been, I can only assume that they are biding their time.

All lectures are online. All are being recorded as
Shorter podcast-style parts. So one lecture may be split into three. All lectures or groups of lectures are supposed to include ‘active learning’ via a task and a zoom meeting. This is going to go by the wayside as not compulsory and groups of 200 ain’t gonna work. May just end up being a live tutorial for questions and to go over any details. Will be recorded too. Timetable and space priority is for clinical teaching for vets, medics, dentists and all our paraclinical degrees. Practical classes will run for science,
But obviously with repeats to allow smaller groups. Likely to be some face-to-face tutorials for arts subjects,
But again small groups and perhaps only one per week.
We all get two branded masks next week.

Generally I think it has been a sensible approach although some schools like Life Sciences are being idiots in expecting lab projects (when we have only limited access for our research staff, and in changing VLE this year!

 

[sainthelens]

1 in 2 million chance of dying from covid, yet 1 in 3 of dying from cancer. 500 deaths a day from cancer in this country....how many from covid?
May sound flippant, but enough is enough now.

 

[benny]

1 in 2 million chance of dying from covid, yet 1 in 3 of dying from cancer. 500 deaths a day from cancer in this country....how many from covid?
May sound flippant, but enough is enough now.

Add flu, sepsis and heart disease to that list.....they are all out there now yet the world stops for Covid19? Yes I know there is no vaccine yet but we are learning all the time. There is no cure for cancer and sepsis if it takes control.....

 

[benny]

Does it matter if it stays with those under 45 mainly? Obviously the old or those with PE conditions will have to be careful, but I assume they will until there is a vaccine anyway? Still low deaths as you say due to demographic age range....crack on with herd immunity?

The problem is the evidence suggests you get creep into the older population and then deaths rise again. This is the case in Spain and was in Florida.
Herd immunity needs about 40 million cases with long term protective immunity . Even a conservative 0.5% mortality rate equates to 200,000 more deaths and god knows what long term effects. I am afraid we will have to live with distancing, masks and targeted local lockdowns until next year at least. Only going to get herd immunity through vaccines.

No doubts there will be a vaccine of some sort in the next 12 months, so the big one is this winter. Like you say, social distancing will be in place until that happens but life needs to go on.....

 

[Professor]

1 in 2 million chance of dying from covid, yet 1 in 3 of dying from cancer. 500 deaths a day from cancer in this country....how many from covid?
May sound flippant, but enough is enough now.

Add flu, sepsis and heart disease to that list.....they are all out there now yet the world stops for Covid19? Yes I know there is no vaccine yet but we are learning all the time. There is no cure for cancer and sepsis if it takes control.....

Not one or another though. It’s in addition.

Sepsis is going to be a huge problem in the near future

 

[Squarebear]

Sepsis is going to be a huge problem in the near future

Why's that, prof?

(Not doubting you, simply trying to understand cause/effect).

 

[Professor]

Sepsis is going to be a huge problem in the near future

Why's that, prof?

(Not doubting you, simply trying to understand cause/effect).

Sepsis is usually due to a bacterial infection. As resistance to antibiotics gets more common, they will be harder to treat so more sepsis ( which is similar to the cytokine storm in Covid) and more septicaemia (bacterial blood poisoning ).

 

[jack123]

Why's that, prof?

(Not doubting you, simply trying to understand cause/effect).

Sepsis is usually due to a bacterial infection. As resistance to antibiotics gets more common, they will be harder to treat so more sepsis ( which is similar to the cytokine storm in Covid) and more septicaemia (bacterial blood poisoning ).

That is frightening, I never really paid much attention to sepsis, but I googled it earlier after reading what you said, looks bloody horrible.

 

[benny]

Sepsis is usually due to a bacterial infection. As resistance to antibiotics gets more common, they will be harder to treat so more sepsis ( which is similar to the cytokine storm in Covid) and more septicaemia (bacterial blood poisoning ).

That is frightening, I never really paid much attention to sepsis, but I googled it earlier after reading what you said, looks bloody horrible.

Funnily enough my father in law suffers with lots of water infections, he was coming down with another one Wednesday night. Usual antibiotics and histamines didn’t work and about 9pm he began to shake uncontrollably. Ambulance came and his breathing was an issue also, along with a high temperature, over 40. Out of the blue he started to cough, medics decided he had to go to the Covid Ward in the Heath due to symptoms. He’s not been out for 6 months and barely had contact with anyone.
Didn’t think it was Covid as so little of it about, luckily for him there was no one at the Heath with it.
Turns out it was a blood infection, sepsis. Not quite under control yet, they’ve tried 4 antibiotics already but he seems to be in the mend. Like prof says, we risk them not working as we overuse them. It’s bound to become a big problem unless we find new antibiotics. Pretty sure we haven’t found any for a while now? I’ve heard of young healthy people getting sepsis too, losing limbs or dying....way worse than Covid in my mind.