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Keir Starmer

  • Thread starter Thread starter MrSwerve
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The proof will be after the next general election given that’s what Zia Yusuf (and you) are talking about.
Fair point, indeed so, but nevertheless the politcal analysts will be focused (as always. on these late night shows) of how those results are likely to predict future outcome(s) come the next general election.
 
Fair point, indeed so, but nevertheless the politcal analysts will be focused (as always. on these late night shows) of how those results are likely to predict future outcome(s) come the next general election.
In my view, standard political analysts are getting increasingly caught out. I include the ‘sainted’ John Curtice who the BBC still talk about as though he’s infallible despite him being wrong as often as not. He’s utterly unable to predict the effects of tactical voting on his predictions. Plus he is one who consistently overestimates Reform support. Even at the last election he said Reform we’re getting 11 seats. Which led to an extremely tedious over focus on them all night which was totally unwarranted. Not helped by Nigel’s little helper Laura Kuenssberg of course.

The next general election is a long time off. And what people will vote on, as ever, is how well off or otherwise they feel. So far, this government has been awful at telling its story. But little by little, economic indicators are all moving in the right direction. And people will, in about 6 months’ time, start to really feel it. We’ll see what polling is like when that happens.
 
Well the proof will be after Welsh government and council elections. Bookmark it, so that you can gloat if proven to be correct. So its an upcoming nightmare for Reform then?
Not sure the Senedd elections are relevant with it being PR. They’ll get between 25% and 35% of the votes and as a result roughly that number of MSs.

General election in 3 years time is a totally different scenario. If things continue as they are I think they’ll win a significant number of Westminster seats but those projections in the graphic are just not realistic for the reasons others have outlined.
 
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