Senedd Election 2026

[Londonlisa2001]

It might be difficult but it can still be mapped out in a forecast. If this hasn’t been done within the links provided, then it should be corrected. We don’t need another Brexit type decision, driven by political whataboutery and downright lies. There is an opportunity here for the pro independence parties to make a strong claim.

The UK doesn’t provide a split of some of the significant figures I’m talking about. It doesn’t have a mechanism for measuring it because returns to HMRC are not split by country / region and the companies themselves won’t do it in full.

Take Tesco as a single example, they will know revenue by store and could get to VAT (ish) at a push, but costs are central (some costs they will be able to get to by store but many they won’t). So when they pay corporation tax to HMRC they can’t split it, let alone government. PAYE / NIC will be possible. Things like capital taxes on buying and selling property etc will be difficult as they’ll utilise losses against profits all over the UK. Some of their biggest costs (energy for example) they bulk buy on a national level using forward contracts. Splitting all that is impossible at the moment other than using an average across the UK which won’t be accurate.

Now multiply that by every company, tech, TV, electronics, household, holidays, food, cars, clothing etc etc etc etc.

So estimates are obviously available and have been done by both sides of the debate but with wildly different figures coming out the end.

 

[J_B]

Is there a fiscal blueprint for independence for Scotland that could be used as a framework for Wales?
The Scots have come reasonably close to securing independence in the past.

 

[exiledclaseboy]

Is there a fiscal blueprint for independence for Scotland that could be used as a framework for Wales?
The Scots have come reasonably close to securing independence in the past.

Their legal and financial systems are far more separate from England than ours. But yeah it would be a starting point. Pretty sure someone on the independence scene would have looked at that. Although the U.K. government did next to no preparatory work for the eventually that Scotland may leave the union. It was expressly forbidden to do so.

 

[monmouth]

Is there a fiscal blueprint for independence for Scotland that could be used as a framework for Wales?
The Scots have come reasonably close to securing independence in the past.

From my extended residence in the land of porage, they are a far more unified and entitled (in terms of self belief and hatred of all things English) than Wales is. We have far more links with England (eg M4, M56 and population mix) than they had during my time there, and they still couldn't convince or carry the necessary majority. I know things have changed but, I'd be amazed if the population of Wales, given the nature of the country where every nationalist indicator is much weaker than Scotland, could be carried, whatever figures could be magicked up.

I hate Westminster and I hate that Wales gets a shit deal, and by god I'd love to see a strong nationalist movement, starting in May, put some pressure on London, but I still can't ever see it coming to pass.

Add, Scotland of course was never subjugated (act of Union), unlike Wales (Act of Incorporation), hence Clasie's point about systems.

 

[Cooperman]

The UK doesn’t provide a split of some of the significant figures I’m talking about. It doesn’t have a mechanism for measuring it because returns to HMRC are not split by country / region and the companies themselves won’t do it in full.

Take Tesco as a single example, they will know revenue by store and could get to VAT (ish) at a push, but costs are central (some costs they will be able to get to by store but many they won’t). So when they pay corporation tax to HMRC they can’t split it, let alone government. PAYE / NIC will be possible. Things like capital taxes on buying and selling property etc will be difficult as they’ll utilise losses against profits all over the UK. Some of their biggest costs (energy for example) they bulk buy on a national level using forward contracts. Splitting all that is impossible at the moment other than using an average across the UK which won’t be accurate.

Now multiply that by every company, tech, TV, electronics, household, holidays, food, cars, clothing etc etc etc etc.

So estimates are obviously available and have been done by both sides of the debate but with wildly different figures coming out the end.

Let’s hope our new Senedd, devoid of Reform, can rise up and unpick some of this and at the same time challenge Westminster for some short term wins.

 

[Jack2jack]

Establishing the fiscal gap is difficult.

Firstly Wales is allocated ‘its share’ of UK projects (defence for example) and English projects (HS2 being an obvious example).

Secondly companies registered in England but operating in Wales (most of them) will show as profits being generated in England rather than being split.

Thirdly VAT take from those companies is not split (VAT is not devolved).

So the actual deficit will be a lot lower than it first appears.

Plus the UK as a whole runs a significant deficit. Most countries do. So expecting Wales to have zero deficit is unrealistic.

Economically there will be significant challenges. But Wales does also have some significant resources that could be exploited. Tidal energy, access to significant coastline for off shore wind (Cardigan bay), and a relatively highly skilled workforce. And water. Of course which will become an increasingly valuable commodity. Plus it would have the opportunity to establish taxation policies that could be very attractive for business and incoming investment.

It would need to significantly up its political game of course. I worry that the prevailing ‘committee men in club blazers’ mindset so obvious in anything run in Wales would spill over into petty small mindedness which would singularly fail to properly exploit opportunity at a national level and would end up being a disaster. Wales would need to drop the parochialism and see a cultural shift. It can happen - Ireland is a great example - but it’s not guaranteed.

No offence like, but I wouldn't want to hang our financial self sufficiency on a tidal lagoon and a couple of wind farms, well have to do significantly better than that.

 

[Swanjaxs]

No offence like, but I wouldn't want to hang our financial self sufficiency on a tidal lagoon and a couple of wind farms, well have to do significantly better than that.

Don't forget the expansion of St Helens

 

[J_B]

From my extended residence in the land of porage, they are a far more unified and entitled (in terms of self belief and hatred of all things English) than Wales is. We have far more links with England (eg M4, M56 and population mix) than they had during my time there, and they still couldn't convince or carry the necessary majority. I know things have changed but, I'd be amazed if the population of Wales, given the nature of the country where every nationalist indicator is much weaker than Scotland, could be carried, whatever figures could be magicked up.

I hate Westminster and I hate that Wales gets a shit deal, and by god I'd love to see a strong nationalist movement, starting in May, put some pressure on London, but I still can't ever see it coming to pass.

Add, Scotland of course was never subjugated (act of Union), unlike Wales (Act of Incorporation), hence Clasie's point about systems.

I wonder whether a Reform government in Westminster would tip Scotland over the edge to independence?
Reform currently polling at around 14% in Scotland. SNP, Labour, Lib Dem & Greens over 70% combined. A Reform government would be very hard to stomach north of the border.

 

[monmouth]

I wonder whether a Reform government in Westminster would tip Scotland over the edge to independence?
Reform currently polling at around 14% in Scotland. SNP, Labour, Lib Dem & Greens over 70% combined. A Reform government would be very hard to stomach north of the border.

Possibly, but I don't think Wales would follow as the turds are more popular amongst the brain dead woodenheads. There won't be a Racist majority anyway. There will be a fragmentation of voting, but whatever happens, I just don't believe those wankers will get a parliamentary majority. More likely that more progressive parties coalesce imo, and Fartage disappears - again - like the empty bag of shit he is.