Coronavirus- new spike coming?

[jack123]

This is incredibly sad and a reminder of how COVID can destroy families.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54828574

I say this with my uppermost condolences to that family, but one question.. I have seen the stats of surviving covid, even for an 85+ with 3 or more underlying health condition is near on 97%, and when you get to say the 50 plus group, even with underlying conditions from what I have seen 99.6%, so surely to report three members of the same family, dying in this way seems like an impossibility ? I would assume, judging by the statistical data, that it would be highly unlikely for all three to have died of covid, perhaps a positive result, but actually dying of it? Just can't see it..

 

[JackSomething]

This is incredibly sad and a reminder of how COVID can destroy families.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54828574

I say this with my uppermost condolences to that family, but one question.. I have seen the stats of surviving covid, even for an 85+ with 3 or more underlying health condition is near on 97%, and when you get to say the 50 plus group, even with underlying conditions from what I have seen 99.6%, so surely to report three members of the same family, dying in this way seems like an impossibility ? I would assume, judging by the statistical data, that it would be highly unlikely for all three to have died of covid, perhaps a positive result, but actually dying of it? Just can't see it..

So you don't question outlandish claims of election rigging, but happy to be extremely sceptical when it comes to Covid-19?

PS, no need to respond with anger, I'm just making a little joke.

 

[jack123]

It's a shame, I have asked this question numerous times, and I never get a proper answer.

 

[Professor]

This is incredibly sad and a reminder of how COVID can destroy families.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54828574

I say this with my uppermost condolences to that family, but one question.. I have seen the stats of surviving covid, even for an 85+ with 3 or more underlying health condition is near on 97%, and when you get to say the 50 plus group, even with underlying conditions from what I have seen 99.6%, so surely to report three members of the same family, dying in this way seems like an impossibility ? I would assume, judging by the statistical data, that it would be highly unlikely for all three to have died of covid, perhaps a positive result, but actually dying of it? Just can't see it..

The probability of an individual does not change because they are the same family though. There may be familial factors that increase susceptibility, but statistically the risk remains the same. Like a die, you have a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a six every time. Even if you had two sixes previously. The probability remains the same

 

[Professor]

Anyone who dies within 28 days of testing positive is automatically said to have died from covid. That ruling is a total fraud that we must wake up to.
It's not who's dying from covid but the ones who are because of it.

What did Freddie Mercury die from?

 

[jack123]

I say this with my uppermost condolences to that family, but one question.. I have seen the stats of surviving covid, even for an 85+ with 3 or more underlying health condition is near on 97%, and when you get to say the 50 plus group, even with underlying conditions from what I have seen 99.6%, so surely to report three members of the same family, dying in this way seems like an impossibility ? I would assume, judging by the statistical data, that it would be highly unlikely for all three to have died of covid, perhaps a positive result, but actually dying of it? Just can't see it..

The probability of an individual does not change because they are the same family though. There may be familial factors that increase susceptibility, but statistically the risk remains the same. Like a die, you have a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a six every time. Even if you had two sixes previously. The probability remains the same

But would you say, and i'm just saying figures from memory here, so it's only a rough estimate.. The chances of them dying under 50 is something like .003% and for the mother who had copd, .07% so for the three members of the same family to actually die of covid, does seem very very highly improbable, and don't take my word for those stats, but it's around that area from memory..

IMO it's an impossibility for them all to have died from covid.

Edit: the 0.7% for the 70 plus mother should read around the 2% mark.

 

[Professor]

The probability of an individual does not change because they are the same family though. There may be familial factors that increase susceptibility, but statistically the risk remains the same. Like a die, you have a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a six every time. Even if you had two sixes previously. The probability remains the same

But would you say, and i'm just saying figures from memory here, so it's only a rough estimate.. The chances of them dying under 50 is something like .003% and for the mother who had copd, .07% so for the three members of the same family to actually die of covid, does seem very very highly improbable, and don't take my word for those stats, but it's around that area from memory..

IMO it's an impossibility for them all to have died from covid.

No.
It’s not. People don’t understand probability.
Of course the individual chance here is not consistent. But one event does not preclude another. People say ‘law of averages’ but that is assumption. Either way it’s horrendous and those on social media pedalling this need to have a long hard look at themselves

 

[jack123]

But would you say, and i'm just saying figures from memory here, so it's only a rough estimate.. The chances of them dying under 50 is something like .003% and for the mother who had copd, .07% so for the three members of the same family to actually die of covid, does seem very very highly improbable, and don't take my word for those stats, but it's around that area from memory..

IMO it's an impossibility for them all to have died from covid.

No.
It’s not. People don’t understand probability.
Of course the individual chance here is not consistent. But one event does not preclude another. People say ‘law of averages’ but that is assumption. Either way it’s horrendous and those on social media pedalling this need to have a long hard look at themselves

So look at those cases in particular, I'm not getting a link to look, 72 year old female with copd, 44? male condition unknown too me, and another male with down syndrome that's all I know..

I would say it's impossible for them all to die of covid, and let's face it you don't need to be anything in the medical profession or even science, to see that.

 

[Professor]

No.
It’s not. People don’t understand probability.
Of course the individual chance here is not consistent. But one event does not preclude another. People say ‘law of averages’ but that is assumption. Either way it’s horrendous and those on social media pedalling this need to have a long hard look at themselves

So look at those cases in particular, I'm not getting a link to look, 72 year old female with copd, 44? male condition unknown too me, and another male with down syndrome that's all I know..

I would say it's impossible for them all to die of covid, and let's face it you don't need to be anything in the medical profession or even science, to see that.

Yes. They all had risk factors which changes the individual. But as I say one person dying does not change the next person’s risk and so on. It is hard to explain in words.

 

[jack123]

So look at those cases in particular, I'm not getting a link to look, 72 year old female with copd, 44? male condition unknown too me, and another male with down syndrome that's all I know..

I would say it's impossible for them all to die of covid, and let's face it you don't need to be anything in the medical profession or even science, to see that.

Yes. They all had risk factors which changes the individual. But as I say one person dying does not change the next person’s risk and so on. It is hard to explain in words.

I know.. some things are hard to get across in text, it just doesn't come out right.. Thanks..

 

[Monty]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuNXE0El6rE

 

[Monty]

All secondary schools and colleges in Wales to shut next week and move to online learning

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/education/schools-closing-monday-christmas-wales-19435796#source=breaking-news

 

[Neath_Jack]

All secondary schools and colleges in Wales to shut next week and move to online learning

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/education/schools-closing-monday-christmas-wales-19435796#source=breaking-news

And most primary schools.

 

[exiledclaseboy]

We’re supposed to be going to the Old Glais next week for a pre-Christmas family meal with the wife’s family. Have to say the thought of it is making me deeply uncomfortable. I haven’t been to a pub since March, seems madness to start now a week before Christmas with a vaccine around the corner next year.

 

[dickythorpe]

ECB, I haven't been to a pub since March either. I've been offered to go to a lunch next week and I'm already thinking of excuses in my head not to go.