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Coronavirus- new spike coming?

Powys new cases have gone from zero a few weeks ago, to around 30 a day and rising.
Get that food in folks. It's around the corner .
 
Heinrich Himmler said:
Professor said:
Running at around 200 new cases a day- which would be around 1300 if Sweden had the same population as the U.K.-where we were a few days ago. Also was running at a higher level than rest of Europe well into August. Of course population density is relevant. You are just too thick to understand that the more spaced out a population the less frequent the contact, the less likely the transmission.

But then since you glorify a perpetrator of genocide,
What would you know or care about people? Only the rancid right seem to think Sweden has been successful in its experiment.
Why do you keep comparing Sweden with the UK, why are you going back in time for your data, why do you not mention the serious amount of deaths that are going to occur due to the neglect of other illnesses, the current situation is a country that never locked down, have saved at a least half million deaths due to continuing normal health care across the board, and now have one of the lowest infection rates in Europe, and only yesterday the uk chief medical officer has come out and stated that if the hospitals are not opened up and allowed to allow people to early diagnosis and treatment asap for all the serious illnesses out there the death rates with be 10 fold more than that of Covid deaths, a ticking time bomb so to speak, so for a guy who spends vast amounts of typing time spilling out complicated jargon most of which is utter nonsense and scaremongering the real picture of things seem to just sail straight over your head.

Sweden has one of the highest infection rates in Europe. Far higher than it's neighbouring countries, and higher than ours. Sweden may not have had a formal lockdown, but it's inhabitants are more self disciplined than Brits and there was no need to make it formal
 
Scotia said:
Something has to be done to enforce social distancing. I've had enough now.

I am completely behind opening up the economy as much as is possible - whilst maintaining social distancing. I love a trip to the pub and go to the gym 6 days a week. I'm not too concerend about catching the virus but don't want to pass it on. I am taking this completely seriously and so is the gym I'm a member of, but I'm completley fed up of those who aren't.

I'm forever seeing fitness classes on Instagram of local gyms completey ignoring social distancing - Group photos with arms around each other, sharing equipment, personal trainers hugging clients etc, etc It is out there in public but nothing happens to them. I'd be happy to name them.

Photos of a packed queue at Coyote ugly in Cardiff - nothing really happens to them. It's not just the under 30's either my local social club has done sweet FA really, a track and trace book that nobody uses, and ignored one way system and pensioners sitting next to each other as they did in early March.

We are sleep walking in to another Spike.

If you wanted to draw out the effects of this as long as possible for maximum disruption on people's lives and livelihoods, I couldn't think of a better way to do it that what we're doing now. We've ballsed up our response in so many different ways. Government too late to react and then contradictory advice/poor communication and trashes confidence by disregarding their own advice; people too susceptible to crackpots and libertarians on the internet who think it's a hoax or who are playing a culture war over masks, etc; awful organisation of inadequate testing facilities, etc.

We don't seem to be able to learn lessons from those (mostly Asian countries) who've done well: act early, hit it hard with a combination of strict social distancing, masks, movement restrictions and border controls. Then you can get back to normal more quickly. instead we've got this half-arsed fudge of a response that will see this drag out for bloody ages. We're going to normalise the presence of coronavirus rather than try to eradicate it.
 
LeonWasTheDog's said:
Scotia said:
Something has to be done to enforce social distancing. I've had enough now.

I am completely behind opening up the economy as much as is possible - whilst maintaining social distancing. I love a trip to the pub and go to the gym 6 days a week. I'm not too concerend about catching the virus but don't want to pass it on. I am taking this completely seriously and so is the gym I'm a member of, but I'm completley fed up of those who aren't.

I'm forever seeing fitness classes on Instagram of local gyms completey ignoring social distancing - Group photos with arms around each other, sharing equipment, personal trainers hugging clients etc, etc It is out there in public but nothing happens to them. I'd be happy to name them.

Photos of a packed queue at Coyote ugly in Cardiff - nothing really happens to them. It's not just the under 30's either my local social club has done sweet FA really, a track and trace book that nobody uses, and ignored one way system and pensioners sitting next to each other as they did in early March.

We are sleep walking in to another Spike.

If you wanted to draw out the effects of this as long as possible for maximum disruption on people's lives and livelihoods, I couldn't think of a better way to do it that what we're doing now. We've ballsed up our response in so many different ways. Government too late to react and then contradictory advice/poor communication and trashes confidence by disregarding their own advice; people too susceptible to crackpots and libertarians on the internet who think it's a hoax or who are playing a culture war over masks, etc; awful organisation of inadequate testing facilities, etc.

We don't seem to be able to learn lessons from those (mostly Asian countries) who've done well: act early, hit it hard with a combination of strict social distancing, masks, movement restrictions and border controls. Then you can get back to normal more quickly. instead we've got this half-arsed fudge of a response that will see this drag out for bloody ages. We're going to normalise the presence of coronavirus rather than try to eradicate it.

I agree entirely. We totally cocked it up in the Spring, and seem to have learned nothing.
 
We locked down too late and opened up too early. We are paying for it now despite the majority of us behaving.
 
controversial_jack said:
Heinrich Himmler said:
Why do you keep comparing Sweden with the UK, why are you going back in time for your data, why do you not mention the serious amount of deaths that are going to occur due to the neglect of other illnesses, the current situation is a country that never locked down, have saved at a least half million deaths due to continuing normal health care across the board, and now have one of the lowest infection rates in Europe, and only yesterday the uk chief medical officer has come out and stated that if the hospitals are not opened up and allowed to allow people to early diagnosis and treatment asap for all the serious illnesses out there the death rates with be 10 fold more than that of Covid deaths, a ticking time bomb so to speak, so for a guy who spends vast amounts of typing time spilling out complicated jargon most of which is utter nonsense and scaremongering the real picture of things seem to just sail straight over your head.

Sweden has one of the highest infection rates in Europe. Far higher than it's neighbouring countries, and higher than ours. Sweden may not have had a formal lockdown, but it's inhabitants are more self disciplined than Brits and there was no need to make it formal
Not any more they now have one of the lowest, catch up mun, you read something a while back and you must be having trouble adjusting your mindset to the present.
 
It was higher for a long time, and it's still higher than Norway, Finland , Denmark and the other nearby Baltic states.Overall it's much higher
 
controversial_jack said:
It was higher for a long time, and it's still higher than Norway, Finland , Denmark and the other nearby Baltic states.Overall it's much higher

No it is now lower go on to the official independent worldmeter site, saying that you will properly start arguing with yourself once you see the statistics, Sweden are doing fine at the moment and they never shut down :roll:
 
controversial_jack said:
Not compared to neighbouring countries who did lockdown

Not any more, please go and check the current statistics there`s a good chap, Sweden have now also been removed from the quarantine list it is now deemed safe to travel there, and they NEVER SHUT DOWN. :eek:
 
I'm not sure why people are rushing to declare "winners" in this whole sad situation when it's far from over.

This time next year Sweden's approach may be highly vindicated. It may be vilified. Until a vaccine arrives and we're well past the current madness there's only uncertainty no matter how sure people are one way or another. The guy who designed the Swedish approach (Johan Giesecke - recently promoted by the WHO) was fairly certain that no conclusions could be drawn either way this side of a winter viral season.

My own personal belief is that the UK locked down the wrong things at the wrong time and the measures being taken now when the situation is nowhere near the extremes it was back in Mar-Jun are a bit OTT. I could be wrong.

https://unherd.com/thepost/johan-giesecke-gets-new-role-at-who/
 
Iv'e had enough of this BS!!!! The restrictions being imposed on us, are IMO without valid reason, next step curfews and restricting alcohol sales, then what ever other rubbish they come up with.. Cases this, cases that.. Iv'e been reading a bit today about this PCR test, in the past I have read about it was never meant for this! Now in the last few days, I'm reading from many, many people that the way they conduct the tests, they could find everybody positive if they wanted to!

I haven't read it all, because there are pages and pages of the stuff, but it's to do with the amount of cycles they are using 45? I believe.
 
jack123 said:
Iv'e had enough of this BS!!!! The restrictions being imposed on us, are IMO without valid reason, next step curfews and restricting alcohol sales, then what ever other rubbish they come up with.. Cases this, cases that.. Iv'e been reading a bit today about this PCR test, in the past I have read about it was never meant for this! Now in the last few days, I'm reading from many, many people that the way they conduct the tests, they could find everybody positive if they wanted to!

I haven't read it all, because there are pages and pages of the stuff, but it's to do with the amount of cycles they are using 45? I believe.

PCR - polymerase chain reaction just amplifies a target sequence of DNA- usually 500-2000 bases (C, G, A , T) very specifically. This was developed in the late 1980s. All PCR uses short pieces of DNA called primers- short templates that match the start of each of the two strands of DNA. The DNA is heated to separate the strands. If the primer matches the target it binds and replicates an enzyme Calle Taq polymerase. Taq is heat stable so you have a cycle of denaturation, amplification and annealing.
After cycle one you have two copies of the target. Four after two, eight after three and so on.

The diagnostic is a quantitative real time PCR. In this there is also a probe sequence bound to a fluorescent dye.As
Coronaviruses are RNA not DNA viruses we convert the RNA first using another enzyme.
In each cycle, as the probe binds to the amplified sequence the dye is released and a laser detector picks up the light signal. The more target (virus) the more signal. There is usually a threshold signal set. So for example if there were a million viruses it may take 10 amplification cycles to reach the threshold (or Ct), 20 for a thousand,
30 for 10. The test is very specific and sensitive. The problem is a cut off. We use qPCR in a different way and run a max of 40’cycles. There is some doubt that positives after 40 or more cycles are viable Virus . This has been badly reported. The suggestion made is that reports to medics etc should show the Ct value as this is a good indication of not only infection but the level of virus,
Not the test is bad

The method is not new- have used qPCR since 1999,
But each set of primers and probe are designed specifically to amplify and detect an individual sequence. What you have read is at best misinterpretation and worst complete rubbish. Saying it is not a Covid test is a bit like saying Picasso is rubbish because he used paints like DaVinci
 
Thank you for the reply, and I appreciate it..This fella here? https://twitter.com/FatEmperor


And I'm sick of ht scaremongering I want the truth https://twitter.com/juniordrblog/status/1304484230496505858

They are so full of shite, I am so thankful for your opinions Prof, but the way I feel, they have fcked this up so much, with no concrete evidence, I can Agree with your opinion, and also someone who disputes your opinion.. Some one is muddying the waters.
 

Swansea City v Leeds United

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