January Transfer Rumours

[bytholwyn]

Our pre-tax loss in the last two years comes to £31.1 million. That means we could make a loss of a minimum of £9.9 million this year, assuming no deductions. In reality, I assume the deductions to be at least £2 million a year, allowing a loss of £15.9 million this year. Given the efforts made to cut costs that should be achievable, although last year's loss was £17.9 million, so things could be tight, especially as there haven't been any big sales.

 

[LeonWasTheDogs]

Wages are the big issue here. We, along with most other Championship sides, have been massively overpaying our players for years. Chances are that that is being rectified slowly, but the likes of Cullen and Cabango won't have signed extended contracts unless they were being paid a lot more than previously. I expect we will make a substantial loss again in the next set of accounts. If we can get it below £10 million we will have done well. I think the permitted 3 year loss threshold is now £41 million, and deductions for the running of the academy, women's team and infrastructure costs are allowed. So, in practice I imagine we're probably able to make losses of close to £50 million in rolling 3 year intervals. We should be comfortably OK this year.

This is the problem with the £20 mil “investment” that was sold as a big deal. Based on previous years, a good chunk of that will disappear on paying the bill. It’s not really investment (maybe half, if we’re lucky). It’s just the owners financing the debt that’ll show in the accounts. Which is fine, or we’d be broke. But it’s not investment. Who’d be a football club owner, eh?

 

[bytholwyn]

From the Swiss Ramble:

"Swansea’s pre-tax loss widened from £13.2m to £17.9m, despite revenue rising £1.9m (10%) from £19.7m to £21.6m, mainly because profit from player sales fell £6.4m from £10.9m to £4.5m."

We may well have made a loss on player sales this year. If that's the case then things will be very tight - with a worsening compared to the previous year of north of £5 million. So to make an overall loss of the same amount - i.e. £18 million, we would need to make savings on wages etc. of £5 million. A big ask.

 

[LeonWasTheDogs]

From the Swiss Ramble:

"Swansea’s pre-tax loss widened from £13.2m to £17.9m, despite revenue rising £1.9m (10%) from £19.7m to £21.6m, mainly because profit from player sales fell £6.4m from £10.9m to £4.5m."

We may well have made a loss on player sales this year. If that's the case then things will be very tight - with a worsening compared to the previous year of north of £5 million. So to make an overall loss of the same amount - i.e. £18 million, we would need to make savings on wages etc. of £5 million. A big ask.

A very big ask indeed. We’ve not sold big this year as far as I can remember, especially once that value it’s amortised it’ll be peanuts for this year. As you say, surely we’ve made a loss.

PL clubs seem to be getting around FFP/P&S by swapping transfers of fringe players for inflated values. Maybe we should find a friendly club also in the crap and do that!

 

[bytholwyn]

A very big ask indeed. We’ve not sold big this year as far as I can remember, especially once that value it’s amortised it’ll be peanuts for this year. As you say, surely we’ve made a loss.

PL clubs seem to be getting around FFP/P&S by swapping transfers of fringe players for inflated values. Maybe we should find a friendly club also in the crap and do that!

Can you explain how that works?

 

[LeonWasTheDogs]

Can you explain how that works?

I think it’s simply a case of two teams swapping players for a notional fee (say £10mil). The paying club can amortise over the length of contract (say 5 years, so £2mil fee this year). The receiving club can include the full income in this year’s accounts, so makes a £8mil accounting profit. Both teams are therefore making this profit on paper for the current year.

It’s nuts. Villa have been using this loophole a lot - with Chelsea, Everton and Juventus. Chelsea, Villa and Everton were all expected to be in breach of P&S but the PL were happy for them using this loophole to avoid penalties- it was announced this week - https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/c1wej2jgpnjo.amp

 

[Ringwood]

I'd swap Toe for Harvie in a heartbeat

 

[monmouth]

We should stop putting unnecessary shit on our wage bill then. Everyone except the people that authorised it knew Pedersen was gash, and why loan players you never intend to use, which we do every single year. And why bring in other people's crap like Berty Perty and pay them.

 

[FearOfAJackPlanet]

I wonder how far down the football pyramid you have to go before you get to a place where a club can live within its means and still be competitive? National League? Lower?

 

[bytholwyn]

It all comes down to the tightness of the regulations. Keiron Maguire, the expert on these matters, has made it clear that normal business principles go out of the window when it comes to owning a football club. It's all about chasing the dream of PL riches and fame. For Championship clubs the dream is within touching distance, so the temptation to spend beyond your means is that much greater. We need tighter regulations to save owners from themselves. You'd think they would agree to that, as it would be mutually beneficial, but the PL addiction is too great.

 

[Ringwood]

We are not developing the youth and potentially creating a gem we could sell

We just get in journeyman with no impact or resale value. Flawed model which Coleman probably isn't seeing.

 

[Smurph]

We are not developing the youth and potentially creating a gem we could sell

We just get in journeyman with no impact or resale value. Flawed model which Coleman probably isn't seeing.

We need a manager who is going to his faith in them. That's the main issue right now.

 

[bytholwyn]

We are not developing the youth and potentially creating a gem we could sell

We just get in journeyman with no impact or resale value. Flawed model which Coleman probably isn't seeing.

The trouble is very few players move to PL clubs for fees north of £10 million. MacGuiness moving from Cardiff to Luton for £10 million was very much the exception, and facilitated by parachute payments.

At least in the last two windows we have brought in players who are proving their worth for us, especially Ronald, Vigouroux, Franco and Eom. Vipotnik and Bianchini are still in the jury's out category. This is at least progress from the summer 23 window, where we had so many signings not good enough for us let alone suitable for selling on for a profit.

I think the best route for making profits on player trading is the academy - but we need to get back to Category one status, and invest more on recruitment to it.

 

[Dr. Winston]

A combination of Covid and FFP basically killed the big money transfer from The Championship.

£20m+ for McBurnie and Dan James before it. Struggling to get £10m+ for Piroe, Downes and Rodon afterwards. Premier League clubs simply aren't prepared to take the risk of spending a significant chunk of their budget on lower league players any more, especially considering how many struggle afterwards.

They'd rather shop abroad.

 

[LaJollaJack]

What gems has this model unearthed?

Can you not see the gems yourself, coops ? Your eyeball test is normally a decent barometer here.
No doubt a couple more in the proven global pipeline …..
(Very few in the academy, needs a proper shake up)