The Biden v Trump Thread

[JustJack]

I really don't understand the idea that this whole thing is being played so Harris can take over mid term.

There is very little precedent for that, barring Nixon, compared to here for example.

As long as Biden is alive, he will be president.

You don’t understand people looking at his age and health and wondering if he’ll see four years out?
If he wins he’ll be 78 by the time he becomes president with four years ahead of him.

Don't get me wrong, she may be everything but president in name by the end of it, but he won't step down or be ousted mid term, thats not how they roll.

Regan apparently was diagnosed with Alzheimers well before he finished his second term

 

[exiledclaseboy]

You don’t understand people looking at his age and health and wondering if he’ll see four years out?
If he wins he’ll be 78 by the time he becomes president with four years ahead of him.

Don't get me wrong, she may be everything but president in name by the end of it, but he won't step down or be ousted mid term, thats not how they roll.

Regan apparently was diagnosed with Alzheimers well before he finished his second term

Depends whether it’s the Dems’ plan to use Biden as the safe option to win the election, serve a couple of years and then hand over to Harris. He won’t be forcibly ousted but it could be all part of the plan.

 

[JustJack]

Don't get me wrong, she may be everything but president in name by the end of it, but he won't step down or be ousted mid term, thats not how they roll.

Regan apparently was diagnosed with Alzheimers well before he finished his second term

Depends whether it’s the Dems’ plan to use Biden as the safe option to win the election, serve a couple of years and then hand over to Harris. He won’t be forcibly ousted but it could be all part of the plan.

I can't see it, I'm by no means an expert on the American constitution, but I'd guess it would not be in agreement with some buried piece of text.

I'd also be expecting the Trump campaign to have been attacking this more specifically, if they thought it was anything above a far flung possibility.

 

[LeonWasTheDog's]

You don’t understand people looking at his age and health and wondering if he’ll see four years out?
If he wins he’ll be 78 by the time he becomes president with four years ahead of him.

Don't get me wrong, she may be everything but president in name by the end of it, but he won't step down or be ousted mid term, thats not how they roll.

Regan apparently was diagnosed with Alzheimers well before he finished his second term

And age is viewed differently over there. People working well into what we would call retirement years is perfectly normal. Mostly because they fear losing their work health plan, although I suspect he hasn’t got that worry. I know several Profs well into their 70s and still fully active.

 

[exiledclaseboy]

Depends whether it’s the Dems’ plan to use Biden as the safe option to win the election, serve a couple of years and then hand over to Harris. He won’t be forcibly ousted but it could be all part of the plan.

I can't see it, I'm by no means an expert on the American constitution, but I'd guess it would not be in agreement with some buried piece of text.

I'd also be expecting the Trump campaign to have been attacking this more specifically, if they thought it was anything above a far flung possibility.

You’re probably right to be fair. The constitution allows for a handover of power though, whether voluntary by the president resigning but it also allows for his removal if he refuses or can’t voluntarily do it. The Vice President has to lead that removal effort. They’ve got it all covered out there.

 

[DJack]

I can't see it, I'm by no means an expert on the American constitution, but I'd guess it would not be in agreement with some buried piece of text.

I'd also be expecting the Trump campaign to have been attacking this more specifically, if they thought it was anything above a far flung possibility.

You’re probably right to be fair. The constitution allows for a handover of power though, whether voluntary by the president resigning but it also allows for his removal if he refuses or can’t voluntarily do it. The Vice President has to lead that removal effort. They’ve got it all covered out there.

The 25th amendment?

 

[Best_loser]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KMtfAySJWJo

 

[JustJack]

You’re probably right to be fair. The constitution allows for a handover of power though, whether voluntary by the president resigning but it also allows for his removal if he refuses or can’t voluntarily do it. The Vice President has to lead that removal effort. They’ve got it all covered out there.

The 25th amendment?

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/trump-biden-election-twenty-fifth-amendment-mental-fitness

It would take 4 years to even get it passed through all the obstacles

'In truth, it is all too easy, in a fragile democracy, especially in a time of immense crisis and fear, to transform vehement political or moral disapproval of a leader into a conviction that he or she is mentally unsound and therefore dangerous—and should be overthrown through non-electoral means. That is likely why the Twenty-fifth Amendment has been invoked only in temporary and limited ways, and only in cases of physical incapacity. George W. Bush invoked it twice for colonoscopies, each time making Vice-President Dick Cheney the acting President. When Ronald Reagan was shot and in surgery, in 1981, his Administration took steps to install Vice-President George H. W. Bush but soon decided against it. Four years later, Reagan did transfer power to his Vice-President before surgery for colon cancer.

In the realm of mental incapacity, as Richard Nixon faced likely impeachment, his staff feared that his unravelling state might lead him to order a nuclear launch, and his Defense Secretary went so far as to tell the Joint Chiefs not to execute such a military order if it came directly from the President. But Nixon’s Cabinet did not seek to set in motion his removal under the Twenty-fifth Amendment. Reagan’s staff considered invoking the Amendment when his dementia became evident to them, late in his second term, but decided against it

 

[Professor]

He’s been on twitter all night anyway. :lol:

It's in person campaigning he's stopped (after tonight).

Meanwhile Trump does four rallies a day across several states.

This has aged well.

See Trump is now heading to Iowa and Georgia. Both assumed safe a few weeks ago.

 

[Monty]

12 mins until first propaganda session of the day https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndhL3MRYius

 

[AceJack]

Haven’t been on Planet Stormfront in quite a while. What a shithole. Dimi has run it into the ground and I think he’s pretending he works in American politics now. Very bizarre.

Ace, Dimi used to post on a Cardiff forum as Roath Magic. He wound up a lot of people on there and said he was living in Australia. He would not say where but someone found out and a poster on there who was living in the same town invited him over for a chat "I'll even put the kettle on".

Dimi AKA Roath Magic never posted on there ever again.

Hahaha what a sh*thouse.

 

[AceJack]

I see "Dr" P has attacked a good few of us on 'Swansea Independent"

Perhaps if he was not so obsessed with 'the markets' he may have looked wider and better realise the failures of a poor Trump campaign which has only succeeded in enhancing a mediocre Biden one. Perhaps looking at some of the statistical based modelling would reveal what has or not had an impact in the campaign than brief "market" fluctuations. I also note that he only mentions 'the markets' when it suits him. Though currently with Trump at around 3.0 (or 33% probability) it does not look so good. Models are less favourable, The Economist has him around 7%, whereas the very detailed Nate Silver model has 10-15%, though is much less reliant on polling than The Economist.

Trump may well win, I think 33% is more realistic, but we may equally see a Biden Landside. Given that North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa and even Texas now look like battleground states means a lot of ground for Trump to cover and a smaller budget than Biden for TV spots.

Going to be an interesting week. Wonder what revelations will emerge? Any last minute endorsements perhaps?

He can keep attacking. There's no point engaging with someone who does not believe the Proud Boys are anything other than a neo-fascist organisation. Other posters can sit over there and either ignore him or passively enable him but I wouldn't expect anything less from some of them who have this strange propensity to look the other way whenever fascistic ideas bubble up to the surface but go full mast anytime Diane Abbot fluffs her lines.

He's clearly in the throes of a deeply traumatic episode and I sincerely hope he gets the help he needs. Alternatively if he does actually believe his own far right copy pasta then the only good fascist is a dead fascist.

 

[JackFish]

Trump may well win, I think 33% is more realistic, but we may equally see a Biden Landside. Given that North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa and even Texas now look like battleground states means a lot of ground for Trump to cover and a smaller budget than Biden for TV spots.

Even if he can hold NC, GA, TX and FL, he's probably still going to need to hold on to two of Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Or Arizona and Pennsylvania would work too. Biden's ahead by 10%+ in 250 votes worth of states, so Trump's going to have to win a lot of the close races again in order to win. It doesn't look very promising for him, but he did it last time winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida by tiny margins.

 

[AceJack]

Trump may well win, I think 33% is more realistic, but we may equally see a Biden Landside. Given that North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa and even Texas now look like battleground states means a lot of ground for Trump to cover and a smaller budget than Biden for TV spots.

Even if he can hold NC, GA, TX and FL, he's probably still going to need to hold on to two of Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Or Arizona and Pennsylvania would work too. Biden's ahead by 10%+ in 250 votes worth of states, so Trump's going to have to win a lot of the close races again in order to win. It doesn't look very promising for him, but he did it last time winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida by tiny margins.

After last night's confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, Trump's already won. If the election is anywhere near close, which it will be, Trump will contest and the Supreme Court will rule in his favour. Its over.

 

[Professor]

Even if he can hold NC, GA, TX and FL, he's probably still going to need to hold on to two of Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Or Arizona and Pennsylvania would work too. Biden's ahead by 10%+ in 250 votes worth of states, so Trump's going to have to win a lot of the close races again in order to win. It doesn't look very promising for him, but he did it last time winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida by tiny margins.

After last night's confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, Trump's already won. If the election is anywhere near close, which it will be, Trump will contest and the Supreme Court will rule in his favour. Its over.

Ultimately it depends on how close. If the margins stay around 5% in Pennsylvania and 8% in Wisconsin and Michigan as currently polling the difference in votes (100,000s) is probably too great to challenge. Of course if North Carolina, Arizona, Florida and even potentially Georgia go to Biden then any legal challenge will be seen as too crooked. Of course, if the Senate goes to the Democrats even a Trump win by removal of ballots it may well end in impeachment by both houses and a long drawn out mess with massive unrest. Economist calling 4% for Trump now and Nate Silver 8%. In 2016 Trump has modelled to have a 28% chance.

Edited to add: The polling error in PA was 4.4% in 2016. Given the time, the polls have got to be very wrong, probably more so than 2016 for Trump to win barring a huge swing in the polls this week. With rising COVID this seems unlikely.